...which of his two trainees he thinks has the better chance on Saturday.
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It's been a while since I've posted here! I have taken a few years off my Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown research. Since I've been gone I have picked one winner (Orb 2013). I won't bore anyone with the details of my absence from this blog, but I have returned ready to make some predictions.
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All the talk this year revolves around the two stars in Baffert's stable: Dortmund and American Pharoah.
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Dortmund comes into the derby off an easy win in the Santa Anita Derby. He's an unbeaten 6 for 6, a record that also belonged to the likes of Barbaro, Smarty Jones, and Seattle Slew. He's a son of Big Brown, the 2008 Derby and Preakness winner. On paper, he should be the one to beat no questions asked. My questions about his chances echo very closely the concerns I had about his father's chances 7 years ago-- I question the class of the fields he has raced against, and I wonder about his ability to lay back off the pace. The Kentucky Derby in this day and age is a suicide mission for a front runner, unless he were to be a true super horse. Big Brown of course did prove to be the best horse on his derby day, and he did show ability to lay back and wait his for his stretch run, and he proved me right on Derby Day 2008. For me, on paper Dortmund looks to be the horse to beat. That said, there is so much more to picking derby winners than what it says on paper. I see a good horse here, with a good record and great bloodlines. But I wouldn't call his wins spectacular. I didn't watch his races and get chills or just think to myself "yes, that's the horse". What did interest me was that Baffert was quoted saying that Dortmund prefers Churchill Downs surface to Santa Anita, and that in fact he doesn't really like the surface at Santa Anita. If that proves true, he could show a surprising improvement and wow us with a great race on Saturday. But I have never put as much faith in how the horse works at Churchill the week of as I do in past performances. Dortmund is a great horse, and he may prove me wrong here, but I don't see him as the best horse in this race. Dortmund has a strong build and is a beautiful animal. Certainly not a horse I'm going to write off on Saturday.
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American Pharoah arrives at Churchill Downs with the prestigious Arkansas Derby on his resume. I have thought for many years now that the Arkansas Derby is one of, if not the strongest and most reliable Derby prep races. Pharoah comes in with a 5-4-0-0 record, with a 2-2 2015 season. When I watch the replays of his Arkansas Derby win, I see everything a Kentucky Derby winner should be: a calm and collected lay off the pace style, a tall long-legged animal (although a bit lanky), and most of all I see a smooth, floating kind of a gallop. I see an easy pull away win that day that didn't appear to take much out of him. He's a son of Pioneer of The Nile, who disappointed me as my derby pick the year he ran. I can't explain what it is or why I feel the way I do, but there's just something about this horse for me. And I am a believer in going with my gut above all else when it comes to the derby. That said, I never make my final choice until I see them all in the post parade. I like to see how they look that day, live, and how they are acting. But on this the Wednesday before the race, my gut is with American Pharoah.
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My Top Ten as of today for Saturday's Race:
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1. American Pharoah
2. Dortmund
3. Materiality (this is kind of a bloodline thing for me)
4. Carpe Diem
5. International Star
6. Mubtaahij
7. Frosted
8. Firing Line
9. Upstart
10. El Kabeir
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One of the tougher things about choosing the winner this year is that all of these top five horses on my list have won a major prep race, and for the most part have been the best horse in their region. But it's tough to compare the quality of the horses they've beaten because it seems all the horses have sort of stuck to their region this year. It's also in my opinion a deeper field than the derby has seen in a while, which I hate to say likely means there will be no triple crown winner this year--not unless one of these colts is better than anyone thinks he is.
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That's all I have for now, more later.
