16. Pioneer of the Nile

Well, Trainer Bob Baffert said his stride has improved since switching to the dirt, and that's a scary thought. Baffert also said that his overall happiness has improved at Churchill Downs, and he really seems to like the track. I think we can expect a good race out of him on Saturday. This is indication, but no proof that he'll run well on dirt. Also, this field has a bit more class that what he beat at Santa Anita.

Record: 8-5-0-1

Son of Empire Maker, who should have,but didn't win the derby in 2003. But he came back to win the Belmont. He's produced some excellent horses already. This guy should handle the dirt and distance just fine.

17. Summer Bird

This one comes in off of an overlooked, but quite impressive performance in the Arkansas Derby. He came from way, way back to be third and he was gaining on Old Fashioned and Papa Clem with every step that he took. His works at Churhill have been less than stellar, but I'd say it's possible. He could be a good bet to hit the board at a high price, but he'll need to be able to overcome trouble.

Record: 3-1-0-1

He's a son of Birdstone (who of course, was the horse that took the triple crown from Smarty Jones when he won the Belmont Stakes). Birdstone's got a few good 3yos this year. On his mother's side, his grandsire is Summer Squall, who was a Preakness winner and the sire of Charismatic, so he has the bloodlines to contend here. Don't count him out--it might come back to bite.

18. Nowhere to Hide

I haven't heard much about this colt, which probably doesn't bode well for his chances here. His record isn't particularly impressive, and he'll need to improve alot to beat many here.

Record: 8-1-2-1

Pedigree, once again is quite good. He's a son of Vindication, who is a son of the great Seattle Slew. Vindication himself was an undefeated winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile (4 for 4) before being sidelined with injury. His mother is a daughter of Seeking the Gold, who produced champion filly Dream Supreme (BCD winner), Dubai Millenium (Dubai World Cup Winner), Gold Tiara, Heavenly Prize, Meiner Love, Pleasant Home, Seeking the Best, Seeking the Pearl, Wanderin Boy. All of these earned over $1 million on the track. He also produced Bob and John, who won the 2006 Wood Memorial Stakes (but was unplaced in Derby).

19. Desert Party

19's a rough draw, but this one's got a good chance. He's been impressive in Dubai and has been looking awfully good at Churchill in preparations for the Derby.

Record: 6-4-1-0

His pedigree is probably the strongest indication of his potential here. He is a son of Street Cry, who produced both Street Sense (Derby winner 2007) and Zenyatta (who is undefeated and utterly amazing). His mother was a daughter of Preakness and Belmont winner (1994) Tabasco Cat. He looks very worthy of top honors here at Churchill Downs.

20. Flying Private

In my opinion, will start and finish with that number. D. Wayne Lukas can never be counted out, but he's known for running anything eligable in the Derby whether it has a chance or not. However, this was the sentiment they had for Charismatic, and look what happened there.

Record: 10-1-4-0

I will say, his pedigree is quite impressive, but he hasn't lived up to it yet. Not even close. (Fusaichi Pegasus (Derby winner 2000) X Beautiful Treasure (Unbridled(Derby winner 1990)). Now nothing is impossible, especially in this sport, but he'll need a huge step up to hit the board here, especially coming from post 20.

Poll

So far has recieved 5 votes, 1 for Dunkirk and 4 for Pioneer of the Nile. These got erased when I edited it now that the official field is set.

A Top Ten With Quality, But No Road.

1. I Want Revenge
Hasn't been working great at Churchill, but good enough for now.

2. Friesan Fire
Did I hear rain was in the forcast this week in Lousiville? Heavy, heavy rain that will create a sloppy, sloppy track?

3. Dunkirk
Patiently awaiting his arrival at Chruchill. I'm not worried about how he'll run on the surface--most that like Gulfstream do just fine.

4. Pioneer of the Nile
I hear he's been looking great at Churchill. He really looks like he's going to be a threat. If he's better on dirt than he is on synthetics...I can only imagine. However, since he isn't proven on dirt, and he hasn't been spectacular in his big wins this year, he can't move up on my list. I might regret that later.


5. Desert Party
Yes, I Finally jumped on the Goldolphin train for real. I hear he looked spectacular in his works, and I'm not convinced at all by Regal Ransom's "better work." Yes, it was faster, but Desert Party galloped out the longer distance faster.


6. Musket Man
I can't argue with his wins this year.

7. Papa Clem
Arkansas Derby win gives him edge.

8. Chocoalate Candy
I hear he also looks good and likes to play in the mud.

9. Regal Ransom
Also looks good.

10. Hold Me Back
I also heard he was handling the surface at Churchill like a pro.

Quarter Crack Will Be The End Of Quality's Road

Quality Road is no longer in consideration for the Kentucky Derby following the development of yet another quarter crack. He was supposed to breeze this morning at Belmont Park, but was unable to because he still had some tenderness on the quarter. Due to this, he was pulled out of the Derby this Saturday. I really think this will have a big effect on the Triple Crown this year, especially if he runs in one or both of the other two races. Quality Road stands a really good chance to be the horse to come sweep the Belmont away from a possible Derby and Preakness winner and spoil yet another Triple Crown. It's a shame, it really is. He could have been the best one out there Saturday.

Just For The Record...

My top ten really hasn't changed, except for the fact that my top five are so close now that I really can't even distinguish one from the other anymore. Any one of those horses could win, and they all have a good shot.

I still really like I Want Revenge. But a part of me wants Fresian Fire to win just so Larry Jones (who trained the last two runners up) can finally get his derby winner before he retires at the end of this year. I also think that Quality Road might just be the best horse out there, but I can't tell you how many times the FL Derby winner has let me down. However, the quarter crack looks good. Dunkirk has inexperience against him, but so did Big Brown and Curlin along with many others. Pioneer of the Nile refuses to back down, but the derby is a much taller order than his other races so far this year. Also, I may be the only one saying this, but don't count out Musket Man. I ran a statistical model (which is fairly accurate if you count out the variables (bad days, track condition, etc.) and it clearly said that Musket Man would be the winner. This model correctly picked Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown. Of course, it comes down to alot more than statistics, but it was interesting enough to point out. Musket Man won't be my winning choice, but hey, he's 5 for 6. Would you overlook him?

Friesan Fire

Was simply stunning in the Louisiana Derby. It's been hard not to put him up as number one, but I still am a bit more impressed with I Want Revenge. However, this horse has alot going for him. He's got impressive wins, and he's proven on slop, which isn't likely but a one in thousands of possibilities on Derby Day.

Record: 7-4-1-1
Major Preps Won: Lecompte, Risen Star, Louisiana Derby.

Advantages: Has style, great connections, and can handle the mud. Also, he's proven on the traditional dirt, and Fairgrounds' surface is much like Churchill Downs surface. Talent and great bloodlines also make him one to look at closely. He's a son of A.P. Indy (Seattle Slew X Weekend Surprise (Secretariat)). His mother and her sire were also proven to have talent on the track.

Disadvantages: Might not be facing the toughest rivals at Fairgrounds, but it's hard to argue with three straight wins there. Has he improved that much, or is he a Fairgrounds specialist? I doubt it. Must break Larry Jones's apparent curse though.

Starting To Feel Like Musical Chairs...

Not too much has changed here, but here we go. Parenthesis show where they were on my last top ten.


1. I Want Revenge (1)
I feel more confident leaving him here over Friesan Fire after the news about old fashioned (read the post below this for more info).


2. Friesan Fire (2)
Larry Jone's only shot this year looks like a good one



3. Quality Road (3)
Will benefit fromt the loss of Old Fashioned, because the pace might slow down a bit.




4. Dunkirk (4)
Everyday it looks more and more like he'll get in.




5. Pioneer of the Nile (5)





6. Papa Clem (6)
Didn't beat a sound Old Fashioned

7. Regal Ransom (7)
7. Desert Party (7)

8. Chocolate Candy (8)

9. Musket Man (n/a)
Was forgotten on my last top ten list. He's been playing the smaller preps, but two decent wins is too much to ignore.

10. See last top ten.

Déjà Vu, Anyone?

Old Fashioned is out. Done. Finished.

Following his second place effort in the Arkansas Derby yesterday, Old Fashioned was discovered to have a non-displaced slab fracture in his knee. This certainly shouldn't be a life threatening injury for him, and it might not even end his career, but clearly the Derby is no longer an option. I just have to say it. Larry Jones Trained, Fox Hill Farm owned, Talented gray horse. Haven't we seen this before? Wasn't her name Eight Belles? And didn't they just ask Larry Jones on ESPN last night BEFORE the race if he felt a little déjà vu himself? I find it odd. At any rate, this is obviously bad news for Old Fashioned and his connections, however, it is astoundingly great news for Todd Pletcher and Dunkirk. Also, this does change my top ten a bit, and it puts a little question on the valididty of Papa Clem's win. Old Fashioned ran well, but how could he have run his best with a fracture? Therefore, this does change a couple things. Obviously, first, Old Fashioned is off the list. Papa Clem may or may not move down a little. Friesan Fire loses a bit of the validation this race gave him, but he will stay where he is. Dunkirk's chances now are even stronger, so he may move up. However, losing the speedy front runner will help out Quality Road immensly, so it's a tough call.

That Said, here's wishing Old Fashioned a speedy recovery and a long, healthy life, whether it be on or off the track.

Yet Another Top Ten

Parentheses indicate where they were on my last list.

1. I Want Revenge (1)
I still think his Wood Memorial was the most impressive prep so far, and that his experience and versatility will help him out a whole lot on Derby Day.

2. Friesan Fire (4)
I liked him an awful lot after the LA Derby, and Papa Clem's win in the Arkansas Derby over Old Fashioned further solidified him as a top contender, because in his last outing he was beaten by Friesan Fire.

3. Quality Road (3)
I'm more confident about him now that the quarter crack seems to be on the mend.

4. Dunkirk (6)
It looks like he just might squeeze into the field after all!

5. Pioneer of the Nile (2)
Certainly won't give it up without a fight.

6. Papa Clem (n/a)
Arakansas Derby validated him as a top contender. I think he needs to step up a bit for the win.

7. Desert Party (8)
7. Regal Ransom (8)
Duo from Dubai arrived at Churchill. I'll be looking closely at how they train on the track.

8. Chocolate Candy (n/a)
Has been running well, and was a good second last time out.

9. Old Fashioned (5)
Is hanging on to a spot in the top ten, but I've ruled him out. He's here at the moment becuase I'm not really seeing any others that I really want to put in this spot, but I don't think he belongs in the Derby. Certainly he's earned the right to be there, but he will not win. He just has too much speed on the front end, and he showed in the Arkansas Derby that it couldn't be harnessed.

10. Hold Me Back
Still needs to prove it to me on the dirt, but ran decently off a wide trip in the Bluegrass.
10. Mafaaz
It's hard to say what he'll do in America.
10. General Quarters
Has to be here if Hold Me Back is.
10. Beethoven
Only because if I rule him out he'll come back to haunt me.

Pioneer of the Nile

Never has been, and still is not one of my favorites for this race, but I can't ignore him anymore, because he just keeps winning. On the other hand, he keeps JUST winning. Nothing flashy, nothing special. He just does exactly what he has to do. However, I do like his bloodlines. Empire Maker has already proven to be a valuable stud. Four straight stakes wins for this one, and there's no doubt that he'll give the Kentucky Derby all he has. But it takes more than a consistent horse to win. It takes a special horse. Also, he has not started on dirt, but his pedigree says he should handle it well.

Record: 8-5-0-1
Major Preps won: Robert B. Lewis, San Rafael, Santa Anita Derby.

Advantages: Consistency, Experienced connections. Classic Proven Pedigree (Empire Maker, 2nd in Derby, Belmont Winner 2003)

Disadvantages: Never run on dirt, workmanlike, but needs to sparkle a bit more.

Updated Top Ten

1. I Want Revenge
Showed class and talent in the Wood Memorial. Will need to reproduce that talent, preferably without the bad gate break to win on Derby Day. But the Wood will prove to be a good prep for this experienced colt, because there is no perfect trip on in the Derby.

2. Pioneer of the Nile
Has been extremely consistent, and always does what he has to, but I've been unimpressed. Maybe it's just because his wins haven't been flashy. He's also been based out at Santa Anita for a while on the Poly, so he'll go to the derby without prepping on dirt.

3. Quality Road
Dropped down a couple of places because I am concerned about his quarter crack. He's sound, but it only has a month to heal. But still, his FL Derby was one of the better preps I've seen this year.

4. Friesan Fire
LA Derby was very impressive, but was the muddy track a factor? Either way, this colt looks good, and I'll be looking for him to impress me on Derby Day. Any of these four could be in the winner's circle at the end.

5. Old Fashioned
I haven't given up on him yet, but he needs to run well in the Arkansas Derby to stay here. I like the colt alot, but I'm not sure if he's got what it takes to be a Derby horse or not. Regardless, he deserves a spot in the gate the first Saturday of May.

6. Dunkirk
Would probably be higher on this list, but there is still alot of question in the Graded Earnings Department. I hope he'll make the gate.

7. Win Willy
Will move up if he wins the Arkansas Derby.

8. Desert Party
8. Regal Ransom
The duo from Dubai, in either order. They both have raced well over there, and they both have some experience in the U.S., though neither has a good start over here to bank on.

10. Hold Me Back
Lane's End winner needs to prove his worth on dirt.
10. Mafaaz
Maybe, maybe not.
10. Beethoven
Needs to improve a lot to do well here.

I Want Revenge

Is coming into hand at the most perfect of times. An impressive winner of the Gotham S., I Want Revenge was set to make a bid at the Wood Memorial. And after a terrible gate break, He settled at the back and stayed in last until the far turn (his usual style is up just behind the leaders). He made a bold run up the middle, but then got stuck behind a wall of horses. He showed great determination and guts by fighting through the traffic and drawing away to win. I was most impressed.

He's got nice bloodlines on top, by Stephen Got Even, who is a son of A.P Indy (1992 Belmont Stakes Winner) who is by Seattle Slew out of the Secretariat mare Weekend Surprise.

Major Prep Races Won: Gotham Stakes, Wood Memorial
Race Record: 8-3-1-4
Graded Earnings: $774,000

Advantages: He's NOT a frontrunner. This year more than ever, that could be the key on Derby day. There are just too many of them. Also, he has quite a bit of experience, and has been rather consistent. He's never finsished out of the top three.

Disadvantages: If he breaks like he did in the Wood, Traffic will be an issue.

Updated Top Ten

1. Quality Road
is here for now, but I'm not sure he's staying here. I really liked his Florida Derby but I'm am apprehensive (to say the least) about picking him in May.

2. Old Fashioned
I'm not ready to write him off yet, but he has to impress me in Arkansas to stay on this list. Ps, Larry Jones has a habit of second place finishes on Derby Day, so this might be the right spot for him.

3. Dunkirk
I hope he gets in because he deserves it, and he may run better at Churchill than he did at Gulfstream.

4. Friesan Fire
Need to see what he can really do--I'm not sure just how big a test the LA Derby really was for him.

5. Pioneer of the Nile
Has consistency on his side

6. Win Willy
Arkansas Derby will tell us if Southwest was a fluke or the real deal.

7. Theregoesjojo
Is here for lack of knowing who else to put at the moment. This one has a chance but needs to step up a bit.

8. I Want Revenge
Gotham isn't the most solid of preps, but the race looked awfully good.

9. Desert Party
Is sort of a question mark at the moment.

10. Mafaaz
Again, don't really know what he'll do here in America, but for the moment he's here.

Quality Road

I have to admit it. I wasn't big on this horse at all from the start, but he is certainly making himself harder and harder to ignore. I was thoroughly impressed by his Florida Derby (even considering it was on a speed favoring track). But I'm not convinced yet. I'm not convinced that he is going to be able to run like that at Churchill Downs. I have been burned on Derby Day by too many Florida Derby winners throughout the years (Barbaro and Big Brown of course the exceptions). At any rate, Quality Road is certainly making a name for himself and I am looking forward to seeing what his future holds for him.

Record: 4-3-1-0
Major Preps won: Fountain of Youth Stakes, Florida Derby

Advantages: There's definately plenty of talent. Also, he has a pretty nice pedigree. Speaking of which, anyone else noticed the overwhelming number of Unbridled's Song foals in the mix this year? But if we're talking about pedigrees, I really like that of Friesan Fire.

Disadvatages: It's a bad, bad year to be a front runner in the Derby. Will need to show that he can lay back a little and harness his speed. (The same can be said for Old Fashioned, who also needs to prove his ability to cover this distance). Churchill is not a speed favoring track, which means that the performances of horses like Dunkirk, for example, will be stronger from off the pace, especially if the pace is fast (which, with the number of front runners contesting, it certainly will be.)