My 2015 Triple Crown Experience

"The 37 year wait is over!" That announcer's call rang out on a surreal Saturday, June 6, 2015. It had been a 16 year wait for me: 16 first Saturday's of May, 16 new sets of three year old thoroughbreds, 7 disappointing close calls. But finally, the day was here. I watched in a mixture of excitement, shock, and disbelief. In a time when I was hurting, I was blessed to witness a piece of history.

In 1999, the Belmont Stakes became the first horse race I ever watched. Charismatic's tragic near miss, broken ankle or not, captivated me. This Triple Crown was elusive and I was drawn to it. I was 4 years into horseback riding by that time and I was ten years old in 1999. It would be a couple more years until the sport hooked me for good.

In 2002, War Emblem had just won the Derby and Preakness when I made my first trip to Churchill Downs. At thirteen, I was already a better handicapper even as a rookie than most of the people in the crowd that day. Every horse I picked finished in the top three, and I picked my first winner that day. His name was Hot Lover, and I will never forget the excitement of watching that photo finish. The track was buzzing with anxious hope for the possibility of a triple crown win. The Belmont was just around the corner and War Emblem was the talk of the town. Of course, he too would fall short of racing's holy grail and greatest feat.

By 2003 the triple crown had become a bit of an obsession to me. I handicapped the derby every year with 50% success rate of picking the winner to date. In 2003 it was Funny Cide who disappointed me, though the horse he lost to was both more deserving and a more important part of the future of the sport--Empire Maker was just a three year old. He probably should have won the Derby, but he didn't. He became a Belmont winner that day, but far more important, he would later become the grandsire of America's next triple crown winner.

In 2004 my heart was broken badly when the undefeated Smarty Jones lost. His was such a close call. It simultaneously made me believe and begin to lose faith that this crown would ever be won again.

Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), I'll Have Another (2011) and California Chrome (2014) would add themselves to the list of those I thought might do it--though to be fair I was skeptical of Chromes chances.

In 2009 the horse I picked for the derby finished second to major longshot Mine That Bird. I'd picked a well put together bay colt who'd been cleaning up in his prep races. Pioneerofthenile was a son of Empire Maker. It's always a neat thing when you can remember a horse's sire racing. I was about to experience that in a whole new way.

Arrive at 2015. I was living alone and on a budget, so I didn't have internet or cable at the time. So I was sitting in a booth at a Panera in Jacksonville, Florida with two laptops--one for the Internet and the other because it had the statistical derby prediction model I had created on it (yes I'm that much of a nerd). I crunched numbers for a few hours, watched races, studied bloodlines. Of course I'd already had some idea who I liked. And after hours of research, that opinion would not change. It would only become more solid.

Choosing American Pharoah over Dortmund for the Derby was a gamble in my mind--how do you pick against an undefeated son of a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner (Big Brown)? But there was just something about him. That long, flowing stride. The ease with which he made winning appear. I had this feeling in my gut that Pharoah was more than just the best horse in a very good crop, but he was one of the best horses we'd seen in a while (at least in terms of those who've run the derby). I trusted my gut and boy am I glad I did.

Of course you all know the story. A two length win over two great horses on a "bad day" for Pharoah in the Derby. An easy but muddy coast to victory in the Preakness. And on Belmont day, guarded as I was to another disappointment, I could feel my doubts melting away as I looked at him in the viewing paddock on the TV. He just looked good. Fresh. Strong. He didn't look tired after winning 3 races in just a few short weeks. He just looked ready. Stark contrast to how I'd felt about California Chrome the year before.

I was going through a tough break up at the time, and so I needed that win more than ever. I needed something to cheer for in the midst of total heartbreak. As the came into the stretch I remember saying come on Buddy, do it for me. Win it for me. And as he began to pull away I almost couldn't even believe it was really happening. I was simultaneously excited and numb from my own hurt as I watched the very thing I'd waited most of my life to see. I watched racing history unfold right before my eyes. The son of another horse I'd picked for the derby. The grandson of a horse I'd watched spoil a different triple crown attempt. A horse who's trainer had struck out with three other chances. Who's jockey had just missed aboard two other colts. A team that truly deserved a win. And in front of a country that had been waiting 37 years for it, for him, American Pharoah pulled it off. Just when it was beginning to seem impossible, he became only the twelfth triple crown winner out of 142 Kentucky Derbies. He made history in a big way and I felt blessed to witness it. My aching heart swelled with pride as a mixture of joy and hurt consumed me. American Pharoah was the horse America had been waiting for. He was the horse I'd been waiting for. And he couldn't have come at a better time. He was the distraction I needed and the thing I could feel happy about in a tough time. He was a horse I'd believed in, when I'd nearly lost faith that it would ever happen. He was the hero horse racing needed. He was the hero I needed.

2002: War Emblem

The fiery War Emblem was born on February 20, 1999, a son of stallion Our Emblem and broodmare Sweetest Lady. But there wasn't anything sweet about this near black colt. Trainer Bob Baffert had to handle the horse carefully at all times to avoid a bite, a kick or worse. Luckily, the dark horse had that same fire when he raced, and he had tremendous early speed. For any average speed horse, the Kentucky Derby is suicide. Only the most talented speed horses can pull off gate to wire against the top horses in their crop. War Emblem came to Louisville off a start to finish win in the Illinois Derby. He got a new trainer just weeks before the most important race of his life, and his jockey would meet him for the very first time on the first Saturday of May. It was too late to change his style.

He had 21-1 odds in the Derby, and he surprised a lot of people with another flashy gate to wire victory. He went on to win the Preakness Stakes in similar style. The feisty colt stood in the shoes of many before him: a chance to make history and win a crown that racing fans were starting to be desperate for. But the problem with front runners is that so many of them are one dimensional, and if they don't get on or near the early lead, they flounder.

So when War Emblem stumbled and fell to his knees at the start of the Belmont, it was already over. It didn't matter that he got back up and into decent position by the time he reached the first turn. He wasn't comfortable, and he burned out by the time they reached the stretch. He would finish eighth.

In truth, as hard as it is to win the derby wire to wire, it's probably even harder to win the mile and a half "test of a champion" that way, and it would have been an incredible feat had Emblem pulled it off. Regardless, he was one of the great racehorses of his decade.

Unfortunately War Emblem would not pass his speed on to many offspring. The feisty colt Baffert referred to as Hannibal Lecter would grow up into a picky stallion, and he refused most mares that were put in front of him. He still stands stud in Japan but remains fairly unsuccessful due to his breeding issues. There is also concern, due to the tragic fate of Derby winner Ferdinand, that he may go to a Japanese slaughter house when he is no longer breeding. There are efforts being made to ensure the post breeding safety of him as well as Charismatic and others standing stud in Japan.

And so War Emblem, a beautiful horse with a fiery temper and a lot of speed will always be known for being another one of those that fell short and failed to make history when it was on the line.

1999: Charismatic

A son of 1990 Preakness Stakes winner Summer Squall, Charismatic was born on March 13,1996. His sire's bloodline have him a distant but direct relation to both Secretariat and the great Northern Dancer, whose only career loss was a close second in the Kentucky Derby. Charismatic enjoyed moderate success as a two year old, yet he found himself running in claiming races as late as February 11, 1999--just under three months prior to the Derby.

Having won the Lexington Stakes as his final prep, Charismatic would go off as a 31-1 longshot in the Run for the Roses. A colt named Menifee was favored to win. Unlikely as it was, Charismatic defeated the favorite narrowly that day, surprising most, and granting a decent payday to those who did believe in him.

He would go off as the 8-1 second choice in the Preakness, with Menifee favored again. This time he would best his rival by a length and a half, appearing to put himself in good position for a triple crown bid.

In the final furlong of the Belmont Stakes, it looked as if he would pull it off. He was on the lead in the stretch, but faded to third behind winner Lemon Drop Kid and runner up Vision and Verse. Only when his jockey Chris Antley dismounted and held up the colt's front leg did it become clear what had happened. The jockey would later say that he felt the horse was off and eased him up to prevent a more catastrophic injury--an action that may have saved the horse's life. Charismatic underwent surgery to repair two breaks in that leg the next day, and he never raced again.

Charismatic will always hold a particularly special special place in my heart because the 1999 Belmont Stakes was the first horse race I ever watched, and it lit a fire in me. Already an avid horse lover, I fell in love with the sport that day at ten years old and never grew tired of the excitement. As for Charismatic, being eased in the stretch would imply that it is entirely possible he would've won that day of he hadn't been injured. Horse racing is an unpredictable sport, and when it comes to the triple crown, literally anything can happen.

1998: Real Quiet

Just one year after he came up short with Silver Charm, Bob Baffert got a second chance at the Triple Crown with Real Quiet. He was born on March 7, 1995 and was sold for the low price of 17,000 dollars due to a less than stellar pedigree and crooked knees.

A slow starter, RQ raced seven times before he finally won a race. He then performed well but not victoriously in a couple other races before finally winning the Hollywood Futurity at two. Although the he posted the highest Byer speed figure of any two year old that year, he was not considered one of the top horses going into the Kentucky Derby. The crooked legged colt shocked the world with easy victories in both the Derby and the Preakness, displaying a burst of speed that could not be matched by his rivals each time.

He had been a gangly, skinny colt, but by this time he had bloomed into a big beautiful horse.

In the Belmont Stakes, the excited call was spoken by Tom Dirken and heard by nearly 90,000 spectators: "Twenty Five years of waiting and a furlong to go!"

Real Quiet had at one point in the stretch opened up a four length lead. Many people believe that had Kent Desormeaux waited a little longer to turn on the boosters, he would've held on. But Victory Gallop caught him by just a bare nose, and Real Quiet became the closest triple crown loss instead of the triple crown winner he should have been. Even with replays, it was too close a race to call with the naked eye.

Victory Gallop had been second to him twice in both the Derby and Preakness, and finally bested him with everything on the line. The horse that spoiled the crown continued his success through his four year old season, and RQ enjoyed great success for the remainder of his career, including a notable victory over Free House. He was a top contender for the Breeder's cup Classic, but was unable to run due to injury.

Unfortunately, his breeding career was far less impressive than his racing career, and he died at fifteen after a bad fall. Autopsy revealed that she he fell on his shoulder, the bone shifted into his neck and dislocated or broke 5 cervical vertebrae.

Real Quiet was so painfully close in 1998, that it is difficult to speak of. He certainly would have belonged on the list of the greatest horses in triple crown history. Real Quiet will likely always remain the closest near miss in the history of an unpredictable sport. Of all the close calls we've had, he was the one that hurt the most. 1998's Triple Crown was the one that got away.

1997: Silver Charm

Silver Charm, the first of a trio of near misses for trainer Bob Baffert, was born February 22, 1994. The California based gray colt was perhaps one of the grittiest competitors in horse racing: it was said that if he drew eye to eye with another thoroughbred, he would manage to find another gear and pull away. He proved this to be true time and time again, winning narrow victories over the other top horses of his crop.

Silver Charm was outrun by his rival Free House in the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep race for the Triple Crown. The two grey colts would meet again just a few weeks later in the Kentucky Derby.

Silver Charm won the Kentucky Derby that year, with Captain Bodgit finishing second and Free House running gamely in third, but not quite strong enough to hold off the stretch run of the other two. The two greys would be even closer in the Preakness, with only a head separating winner Silver Charm from runner up Free House. Captain Bodgit was third, and after stumbling at the start and cutting his hoof, Touch Gold was fourth.

Touch Gold and Free House were considered to be the biggest threats to upset the Triple Crown hopeful, and as they cam down the stretch, it was Charm and House in yet another head to head duel for the lead. Jockey Gary Stevens abort Silver Charm thought he had it, once they had put away Free House. He said he "saw a shadow" out of the corner of his eye, and otherwise claims neither he nor the horse saw Touch Gold, who had a fiberglass patch on the hoof he cut during the Preakness, coming. He lost the Belmont by half a length, one of the closest near misses racing has seen. Free House held on to be third again.

Silver Charm went on to win the prestigious Dubai World Cup at four, and stood stud in both the US and Japan before retiring back home in Kentucky in 2014. Interestingly, a deal that sold him to Japan included a buy back clause and an up front fee called the Ferdinand Fee. It was named for the 1986 Kentucky Derby winner that was sent to a Japanese slaughter house after his breeding days were done.

Free House went on to both lose to and defeat Touch Gold in 1998, and he defeated Silver Charm once more as a four year old as well.

As for his Belmont loss, Silver Charm's jockey and trainer both commented that he never saw Touch Gold, believing that if he had, he would have found that special second gear he became known for and held on for the win. Silver Charm was one of the three top horses in a good group, and it seems he won the races that he did with his heart. Whether he lost at Belmont because he "never saw the other horse" or because he simply ran out of steam we will never know.

1989: Sunday Silence

Born March 25, 1986, Sunday Silence didn't have a flashy pedigree like what you'd expect from a Kentucky Derby winner. He got a late start in his two year old season, only running twice in 1988. He finished second In his first attempt, then won a maiden race on his second try. At three, he prepped for the classics with wins in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, making him a strong contender for Louisville's big race.

Meanwhile, Easy Goer, another great son of Alydar was winning at Gulfstream and Aqueduct: he won both the Gotham and the Wood Memorial, also looking strong for the Kentucky Derby. People were calling him the "next Secretariat", leaving Sunday Silence relatively unnoticed and short of the respect he deserved.

In the Kentucky Derby, Easy Goer, who was ailed by a hoof crack didn't handle the muddy course well, and finished second, beaten two and a half lengths by the horse no one noticed. The runner up would endure two weeks of Epsom salt soaks to both front feet leading up to the Preakness, and after a troubled start held the lead at the top of the stretch. Sunday silence ran him down and edged him out by a nose in what was the fastest mile ever run in the Preakness Stakes.

The day before the 1989 Belmont Stakes, Sunday Silence was spooked, and nearly killed his trainer with a kick directly in the temple. He would remain on the card for the Belmont Stakes, and finally went off as the favorite. But it was Easy Goer's day. The chestnut son of Alydar beat the striking black colt by eight lengths, recording the second fastest Belmont in history- only slower than Secretariat's world record for the mile and a half. With the victory, both Easy Goer and Alydar got vengeance: Alydar'S son pulled off the triple crown spoil that his father couldn't, and Easy Goer reclaimed his glory after being the previous year's two year old champion.

The two would meet once more, and Sunday Silence would get the final word by winning the Breeder's Cup Classic by just half a length over the talented Easy Goer. An injury would shortly after force the Derby and Preakness winner into retirement.

Between these two horses, it'll always be hard to say which was better. They were both great horses. The thing about the triple crown is that there almost has to be a clear cut best horse in order for there to be a winner. It's the reason Affirmed was the only horse to beat the same runner up all three times. Affirmed had to earn every victory, and he won with his heart. It's also hard to say if, had he not had the hoof problems, perhaps Easy Goer would have won all three. But in the end, it is far more difficult for a great horse to beat another great horse three times than it is for a great horse to beat a good field three times.

Sunday Silence earned Horse of the Year honors that year despite the panel believing Easy Goer to be the better horse. Sunday Silence went on the be a profitable stud in Japan, and Easy Goer will always be remembered for his rivalry with the Derby winner. In a year with two great horses, the Triple Crown becomes that much more elusive.

1987: Alysheba

Alysheba was one of the best sons of the great Alydar. Alydar of course is most known for being the only horse in history to finish second in all three triple crown races. Had he not been born the same year as Affirmed, he may have been our twelfth champion of horse racing's Holy Grail. Alydar would go on to sire winners of all three races, starting with Alysheba.

Born on March 3, 1984 at Hamburg Place Farm in Lexington, Kentucky, Alysheba won only his maiden race as a two year old. He was third in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, and second in a photo in the Hollywood Futurity. After disappointing Kentucky Derby preparations, he was discovered to have an entrapped epiglottis and underwent surgery to repair the issue. Despite having only won his maiden race, Alysheba was entered in the 1987 Kentucky Derby.

In a dramatic stretch run, Alysheba was nearly knocked to his knees by Bet Twice, and his jockey nearly unseated as they came for home. He recovered and chased down Bet Twice in a gutsy stretch run to win. The unlikely Derby winner came back and bested runner up Bet Twice again with another big race at Pimlico. With only a maiden win prior to the first two jewels, Alysheba showed up at Belmont park with a chance to make history.

The medication Lasix was not permitted for horse racing in the state of New York at that time, and so Alysheba would have to run without it. Regardless, he was not the best horse that day by far-the horse he ran down so impressively after stumbling badly in the Derby was far superior to his competitors in the Belmont Stakes. Bet Twice dashed the dreams of horse racing fans by an impressive fourteen lengths. Alysheba finished a very distant fourth.

Alysheba and Bet Twice would meet again that summer, and the Belmont winner would beat the son of Alydar again, but this time in a close three way photo finish. Alysheba earned another second place before winning the Super Derby as he ended his preparations for the Breeder's Cup Classic. He was defeated that day by the 1986 Kentucky Derby winner, Ferdinand. Alysheba would later defeat both Ferdinand and Bet Twice in his four year old season.

In 1988, he won six grade one stakes races. He was the only horse to run ten furlongs in under two minutes three times in one calendar year. He closed out his four year old season and his career with a victory in the Breeder's Cup Classic in the rain at Churchill Downs, the site of his unlikely Derby victory.

Alysheba and Bet Twice met nine times in total, with the son of Alydar winning four of those meetings and Bet Twice three. In two of those races, neither horse won.

Alysheba probably was just a great horse in the company of other great horses. And perhaps had he bloomed a little sooner, he could have won his Belmont Stakes. But Bet Twice was certainly a deserving winner of that race, and Alysheba proved to be another horse that just didn't quite have what it takes to be the twelfth Triple Crown winner.

1981: Pleasant Colony

Pleasant Colony doesn't have quite the intriguing story that Spectacular Bid had. He was the Wood Memorial winner that year, and was the odds on favorite on Kentucky Derby day. The nearly seventeen had colt held off a late charge by a horse named Woodchipper to win at Churchill Downs by just 3/4 of a length. He would repeat that performance in Baltimore, taking the Preakness Stakes by about one length.

Meanwhile an impressive colt named Summing was coming into hand at the best of times: he won the Pennsylvania Derby, and just ten days later was set to run against Pleasant Colony in the Belmont Stakes.

On June 6, 1981, Summing took a three length lead down the backstretch and never looked back. He ended up holding off Highland Blade by a nose for the win, and Pleasant Colony held his ground for a distant third. His connections all knew he was a tired horse coming into the race, but he was sound and healthy, and with that being the case skipping the Belmont and forfeiting a chance at history was out of the question. Plain and simple, the horse ran flat. He didn't have anymore gas left in the tank, and though he didn't fade badly down the stretch, he didn't have the kick to catch the others. He would run only three more times in his career. After a long rest, he finished a close second in the Travers Stakes, the won the Woodward. He was retired after finishing fourth in the Malboro Cup.

Summing went on to win another big race that fall, and also scored a second place before the end of the year.

Pleasant Colony was simply another one of those that could have been. He wasn't fresh going into the Belmont, and the mile and a half test is no place for a tired horse. His Preakness Victory was his third big win in just four weeks, so understandably he didn't have much left in his tank. But in truth, he probably wasn't the same quality as those that won the crown before him. In fact his own trainer was quoted (when commenting on his Belmont loss) that "he is still a good horse. He's not a great horse". I think the remainder of his career supported that statement well. Good horses come and go. Good horses have good careers and win big races. But good horses don't win the Triple Crown. That takes a great horse.

1979: Spectacular Bid

In 1979, Spectacular Bid was considered one of the greatest race horses of all time. He was born on February 17, 1976, a son of Bold Bidder (who was out of Secretariat's sire Bold Ruler) and a mare named Spectacular. He was the Eclipse award champion two year old in 1978, and by the time he ran in the Kentucky Derby, he was on a ten race win streak.

Spectacular Bid overcame some tough adversity in both his Derby and Preakness victories: he had a young and inexperienced jockey who, in reality probably didn't belong in races of that magnitude. Nonetheless, he won both races, and many people believed he was unbeatable-a shoe in for the Belmont Stakes. That said, he didn't have a lot of fans backing him.

In the 1970s, the crown was looking so easy that it was beginning to loose it's luster. Secretariat in 1973, Seattle Slew in 1977, and Affirmed in 1978: Spectacular Bid would have been the fourth horse in 7 years, and the third consecutive to accomplish the challenging feat. Also thrown into that mix was the fact that he didn't have a very respectable team behind him, and what you get is a great horse with a great shot to win a crown that people had begun to take for granted. His trainer had been fined twice during his triple crown campaign: once for attacking an excercise rider, and once for an incident with a security guard. His jockey had a long list of his own I fractions, and would be arrested just nine days after the Belmont for drug possession. There were a lot of people who didn't want to see this colt win at Belmont.

Meanwhile, there is speculation that camp Spectacular Bid had a plan up their sleeves: they didn't just want to win at Belmont. They wanted to win Secretariat style. They wanted to prove Bid was a better horse than the great Big Red. This is of course only rumor as it was never admitted to. Bid's trainer, Bud Delp, would go to his deathbed with a story of a safety pin, stuck in the horse's hoof as the reason for his loss. He was found sound by veterinarians that day, but did develop a hoof infection just a few days later.

However, in my opinion, the more likely cause of his loss was the way he was ridden. He was pushed by his jockey (maybe at Delp's instruction, maybe not) through fast fractions, trying to outrun a 90-1 shot for the early lead. And not surprisingly, the great colt ran out of gas and faded to third in the stretch. The winner of the 1979 Belmont Stakes was a horse named Coastal.

Coastal was a son of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince. He came to the Belmont Stakes off a win in the Peter Pan at Belmont Park, a fresher horse having skipped the first two jewels of the crown. This is still a popular road to Belmont for potential crown spoilers. Coastal would spend much of the rest of his career finishing second or third behind Bid, Affirmed, and other better horses of his time.

Spectacular Bid's only loss in thirteen races after the Belmont was when he himself was defeated by Affirmed in the summer of 1979 after a troubled trip. How exciting it must have been to see a race with two such great horses as those. Bid went on to do other great things and was the horse of the year in 1980: he was actually an eclipse award winner all three years of his career. He won 26 of 30 starts, and he posted the highest Ragozin speed figures ever run, including Secretariat's Belmont. Maybe he really was "the best horse to ever look through a bridle" as Delp liked to call him. We will never truly know, of course.

Spectacular Bid's story is proof that it takes more than just a great horse to win the triple crown. It takes a great team behind a great horse, and all the right circumstances have to line up. In truth, our next triple crown winner, whenever it happens, will probably not be as deserving nor be a horse of the caliber of Spectacular Bid.

Almost Only Counts In Horseshoes And Hand Grenades.

In honor of this year's triple crown hopeful, I am going to spend the next two weeks leading up to the Belmont Stakes reviewing the recent near misses: those that have won the first two and broken our hearts at Belmont since Affirmed won in 1978. I am going to research and review the possible reasons for loss at Belmont while conducting a series of biographies of those that were great, but not good enough, for whatever reason on Belmont day. It truly does, and should take a special horse. But a triple crown win also requires the stars to align just right: the right horse, the right timing, the right circumstances, distances, and track surfaces, and a bit of just plain dumb luck. Anything can happen in this sport!

Preakness In The Rearview

I wasn't able to watch the race on Saturday because I wasn't able to access the TV channel. But when I heard it was raining, like most knowledgable racing fans, I lost any doubt I had that American Pharoah would win. Dortmund and Firing Line didn't seem to care much for the muddy track, and they will both skip the Belmont. Pharoah showed an impressive victory: he took command from the start and never looked back, a winner going away by seven. It was the kind of performance worthy of one of horse racing's greats, but Pharoah hasn't answered those questions yet. Sixteen days left until he makes a run at history in the Belmont Stakes. More on that later.

Preakness Stakes Overview.

Honestly I am feeling a little bit stumped in regard to what will happen at Pimlico Race Course tomorrow afternoon. Of course based on emotion alone I would have to go with American Pharoah, since America could really use that 12th triple crown winner to end this drought. That said, I'm not sure I have a triple crown feeling about the horse. I wasn't blown away by his win two weeks ago either, not to say that means he won't win tomorrow. In fact, I find it far more likely that he wins tomorrow than I do that he wins the Belmont Stakes.

If the tables get turned on Pharoah this weekend, I expect he will lose at the hands of Firing Line. I don't really expect Dortmund to improve his derby performance much either.

The real questions are: how much did the derby win take out of Pharoah? How well can he bounce back from that? These cannot be answered until race time. I expect he will run well, and I'd love to see him win here. It certainly adds a special air to Belmont day when a triple crown is on the line. It would be great to get to cross "witness a triple crown win" off my bucket list. But as the years go by, I find I am losing faith that it will happen. And of course it probably will someday, but I am losing patience with being dissapointed. And this year, much like last year, I am just not feeling that triple crown winner vibe. I haven't really felt that vibe since 2008 with Big Brown, and even more so in 2004 with Smary Jones.

I have more faith in American Pharoah than I did in California Chrome last year. One, I think Pharoah is a better horse, and two, Chrome had too many variables, ie his bad gatebreak habits. So we will see.

What I do know is that I expect the same top three tomorrow. It is just the order that has me thinking. I expect Dortmund to be third. And as for American Pharoah, I expect either a narrow loss or a big win.

And for the record, I also think it's great that all three horses are returning for the second jewel. I think it makes for and exciting triple crown campaign and a more fair Belmont Stakes.

If Only I Could Ask Bob Baffert...

...which of his two trainees he thinks has the better chance on Saturday.
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It's been a while since I've posted here! I have taken a few years off my Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown research. Since I've been gone I have picked one winner (Orb 2013). I won't bore anyone with the details of my absence from this blog, but I have returned ready to make some predictions.
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All the talk this year revolves around the two stars in Baffert's stable: Dortmund and American Pharoah.
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Dortmund comes into the derby off an easy win in the Santa Anita Derby. He's an unbeaten 6 for 6, a record that also belonged to the likes of Barbaro, Smarty Jones, and Seattle Slew. He's a son of Big Brown, the 2008 Derby and Preakness winner. On paper, he should be the one to beat no questions asked. My questions about his chances echo very closely the concerns I had about his father's chances 7 years ago-- I question the class of the fields he has raced against, and I wonder about his ability to lay back off the pace. The Kentucky Derby in this day and age is a suicide mission for a front runner, unless he were to be a true super horse. Big Brown of course did prove to be the best horse on his derby day, and he did show ability to lay back and wait his for his stretch run, and he proved me right on Derby Day 2008. For me, on paper Dortmund looks to be the horse to beat. That said, there is so much more to picking derby winners than what it says on paper. I see a good horse here, with a good record and great bloodlines. But I wouldn't call his wins spectacular. I didn't watch his races and get chills or just think to myself "yes, that's the horse". What did interest me was that Baffert was quoted saying that Dortmund prefers Churchill Downs surface to Santa Anita, and that in fact he doesn't really like the surface at Santa Anita. If that proves true, he could show a surprising improvement and wow us with a great race on Saturday. But I have never put as much faith in how the horse works at Churchill the week of as I do in past performances. Dortmund is a great horse, and he may prove me wrong here, but I don't see him as the best horse in this race. Dortmund has a strong build and is a beautiful animal. Certainly not a horse I'm going to write off on Saturday.
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American Pharoah arrives at Churchill Downs with the prestigious Arkansas Derby on his resume. I have thought for many years now that the Arkansas Derby is one of, if not the strongest and most reliable Derby prep races. Pharoah comes in with a 5-4-0-0 record, with a 2-2 2015 season. When I watch the replays of his Arkansas Derby win, I see everything a Kentucky Derby winner should be: a calm and collected lay off the pace style, a tall long-legged animal (although a bit lanky), and most of all I see a smooth, floating kind of a gallop. I see an easy pull away win that day that didn't appear to take much out of him. He's a son of Pioneer of The Nile, who disappointed me as my derby pick the year he ran. I can't explain what it is or why I feel the way I do, but there's just something about this horse for me. And I am a believer in going with my gut above all else when it comes to the derby. That said, I never make my final choice until I see them all in the post parade. I like to see how they look that day, live, and how they are acting. But on this the Wednesday before the race, my gut is with American Pharoah.
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My Top Ten as of today for Saturday's Race:
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1. American Pharoah
2. Dortmund
3. Materiality (this is kind of a bloodline thing for me)
4. Carpe Diem
5. International Star
6. Mubtaahij
7. Frosted
8. Firing Line
9. Upstart
10. El Kabeir
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One of the tougher things about choosing the winner this year is that all of these top five horses on my list have won a major prep race, and for the most part have been the best horse in their region. But it's tough to compare the quality of the horses they've beaten because it seems all the horses have sort of stuck to their region this year. It's also in my opinion a deeper field than the derby has seen in a while, which I hate to say likely means there will be no triple crown winner this year--not unless one of these colts is better than anyone thinks he is.
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That's all I have for now, more later.