Georgie Boy is Out

(left: Georgie Boy)

Gerogie Boy, a top contender for Saturday's Grade I Santa Anita Derby, will miss the race due to a pulled muscle in his back. Given the circumstances, with the SA Derby his last planned Kentucky Derby prep race, Georgie Boy will almost definately miss the BIG Derby as well. So there's no Georgie Boy in the Run for the Roses. Of course this makes the Santa Anita a bit of a match race, or at least a rematch between Colonel John and El Gato Malo. I still think that El Gato Malo will get the best of Colonel John this time, becasuse he was so close last time, and Colonel John had a far better trip. The Sham Stakes was El Gato Malo's fist and only defeat to date. Saturday will hopefully put to rest all questions of which of these two is the stronger horse. Of course the presence of Georgie Boy made that race much more interesting. Georgie Boy made himself a top Derby contender when he won the San Felipe Stakes in his first start around two turns. I guess it's time to update my top ten.

In other news, Visionaire will face the biggest contender of them all, Pyro, in the Bluegrass Stakes instead of making the trip to Hawthorne for the Illinois Derby, which is where Denis of Cork and Atoned will put out their last prep efforts. Visionaire will have his work cut out for him in the Bluegrass, but I think it's a good decision, because now he will not be required to travel but once more--the trip to Churchill Downs. War Pass looks to rebound in the Wood Memorial this weekend. Court Vision also to run in that one, along with Tale of Ekati.

1. Pyro

2. Big Brown

3. War Pass

4. El Gato Malo

5. Court Vision

6. Colonel John

7. Denis of Cork

8. Visionaire

9. Yankee Bravo

10. Cool Coal Man (impressive in Fountain of Youth, needs to run well again)

A Day at the Races (a memoir of my first visit to Churchill Downs)

My mom paid two dollars for herself and two dollars for my sister to get in. The man at the gate let me in for free—on the condition that I could slip under the horizontal bar without turning it. After entering, we made our way to the famous grandstand of Churchill Downs, where America’s most prestigious horse race, the Kentucky Derby, is held every year on the first Saturday of May. We walked through the entrance to the grandstand, found three cold, hard, metal, empty seats, and sat down. I was unaware at that time that only a couple short hours later, I would experience in a single minute both the joy that would draw me to the sport of horse racing for years to come, and the horror that would repel me from it and taint its image in my mind forever.
The first horse race I ever watched was the 1999 Belmont Stakes. The Belmont Stakes is the third jewel in what is called the Triple Crown. In order for a horse to win the Triple Crown, he must first win the Kentucky Derby, held in Louisville, Kentucky on the first Saturday of May. Then he must win The Preakness Stakes, held in Baltimore, Maryland on the third Saturday of May. Finally, he must also win the Belmont Stakes, held in Elmont, New York three weeks after the Preakness Stakes. Only eleven horses have earned this most prestigious of titles since the first Kentucky Derby in 1875. I sat in front of the TV that day and studied carefully as the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner, Charismatic, stumbled shortly after finishing third. Charismatic had become the third Derby winner in a row to win the Preakness Stakes and lose the Belmont. He was the third horse in a row to fail to become the twelfth winner of the Triple Crown. But this was different. He had broken his ankle while running down the homestretch. Charismatic would never race again, but his life was saved, and he is now a profitable breeding stallion in Japan.
That summer day at Churchill Downs in 2002 was my first trip to the racetrack—my first time seeing live races without the television screen being present between me and the horses. The track was buzzing with talk about War Emblem, the horse that had won the Kentucky Derby only a month before and had gone on to win the Preakness Stakes. No one knew at that time that he too would fall short in the mile and a half Belmont Stakes the following week. I was loving every second of that day, and I was handicapping well. I was a natural at picking the good horses out of the pack, even if they did not stand out or if I had never seen them run. To this day I am still able to choose horses well. In this year’s Preakness Stakes, I chose the first, second, and third place finishers correctly, a very difficult move called a trifecta. Back in 2002, I was not quite that good, but I was doing well. Of course at my age, I could not actually bet money on these intuitions. During the spring meet at Churchill Downs, there were an average of ten races a day, and because it was past the Kentucky Derby, track admission was inexpensive. I picked out a horse I liked for the very first race, and told my mom and my sister, Jenn, that I thought he would win. He finished third. The horse I liked for the second race won. My choice for the third race came in third as well. The fourth race, however, is the one that comes to my mind first when I think about that day.
I did not even know how to read the odds that were assigned to each of the horses before the start of the race. I now know that the starting odds are given by track officials, and the betting of spectators controls where they go from there. When the horses for the fourth race passed by the grandstand in the post-parade, the time used to warm-up the horses before a race, I chose a nice looking Florida-bred colt by the name of Hot Lover. Hot Lover was wearing a blanket with a large number ten on both sides of his body, showing just behind the tiny racing saddle that held the jockey who was perched precariously on the horse’s back. The purpose of this number was to help both the track announcer and the audience recognize the horse from a distance. My mom chose a pretty red horse that had also caught my eye. Jenn was never as into horses as my mother and I were. She chose her horse because she liked his name—Bunny Hop. At the first announcer’s call, Bunny Hop was trailing the field.
As the horses flew down the home stretch toward the finish line, Hot Lover was quickly narrowing the gap between himself and the leading horse. When I heard what sounded like the combination of every other voice in the stands urging him on, I realized that I was not the only person betting on Hot Lover that afternoon. And while I was only betting my pride, I am certain that these people were gambling their money. It was an absolutely glorious moment when the horses crossed the finish. Hot Lover had come up short by only a couple feet—maybe even inches. I was in love with the sport before that race, but that day was the first time I got the chance to experience the excitement of a photo finish. Hot Lover had put on quite a show. I was ecstatic. Then, suddenly, the noise from all around me stopped—the audience became silent.
The horse my mom had chosen, wearing the blue number nine blanket, was stopped in the middle of the stretch. Even from a distance, my years of knowledge about horses told me that this one was terrified. Then I saw something that I wish to this day I did not have to see. My stomach churned as I saw the horse’s right front leg buckle and bend at the middle of the cannon bone. The cannon bone on a horse is similar to the shin on a human in that it stretches from below the knee to above the ankle. The horse reared up, striking the air with both front legs, and as he did so, the portion of the leg below the obvious break flopped uselessly in the air. When he came back down, he did not understand why he could not stand on his leg. It was clear by that point that his leg was only attached by skin, tendons, and ligaments. The fracture, while not appearing to be compound, was a clean break all the way through the bone. The horse ambulance arrived within minutes. Moments later, a large screen was placed between the horse and the audience, shielding our eyes from the scene. My adrenaline was up, my heart racing as fast and hard as I had just seen those powerful animals run. My stomach was knotted. When horses break a leg, they often do not survive. Even if the bone heals, there are various other complications such as infection and Laminitis. Laminitis is a very serious and often fatal disease of the hoof caused by uneven distribution of weight in the four legs. Through the tiny gap between the two panels of the screen, I saw the horse fall, and I knew that he would never get up. He had been euthanized.
I looked at my program—anything to take my eyes off of the track. The fourth race was a maiden race for two year olds, meaning that this horse had either never run, or simply never been victorious. At two, there was a good chance that this had been both the young thoroughbred’s first and last race. I wanted to cry. I could not believe what I had seen. At the time I had wanted to be veterinarian. This incident at the track added a specialty in equine surgery to that ambition. That goal would later change once again to a simple horse trainer. I decided that I would rather work with the horses when they are healthy. I still watch horse racing often, and I still enjoy it. I have seen many other horses get hurt, and a few break their legs. Some of them have had to be put down. But every injury I see is immediately compared to the one I saw that day, and so far none of them have been as severe. The scariest part is that horses can be hurt that badly running free in the pasture. All it takes is one wrong step. Some of racing’s best horses of all time, such as Ruffian and Barbaro, have been victim to the worst circumstances a horse can face. Ruffian was considered the best female race horse of all time—she had won all of her ten races and either broken or equaled the track record in eight of them. The eleventh one killed her. Ruffian was euthanized immediately after her “breakdown” in 1975. Barbaro was one of the few undefeated winners of the Kentucky Derby, and he won with one of the largest winning margins in the history of the race. His seventh race, the Preakness Stakes broke his six race winning streak. Barbaro survived eight months of the best treatment America had to offer in 2006, until finally, infection and Laminitis got to all four of his legs. His fight ended there. A broken leg is not always the end of a horse’s life—it is not even always the end of his career. For the horse we saw that day, it was the end of both.
We left Churchill Downs shortly after that. There were still six races remaining, but the fourth had killed the mood. On the way out, I could not help but look at the horses in the viewing paddock, awaiting the start of the fifth race. A small part of me wondered if they would all survive the two minutes or less of running they were about to endure. I liked a gray horse with the number four on his blanket. I had not picked a single horse that did not make the top three of his race while at the track that day. When I checked the newspaper the following morning, the number four horse had finished fifth in the fifth race.

Ruffian: Burning from the Start (book review)

Jane Schwartz’s beautifully constructed Ruffian: Burning from the Start follows the story of one of the finest racehorses in American history and of the people involved in her life and career every step of the way. Ruffian was born to Shenanigans out of a stallion named Reviewer in 1972, and grew into her racing years in the wake of Secretariat’s stunning Triple Crown victory. Secretariat, after completing his triple crown by winning the 1973 Belmont Stakes by thirty one horse lengths, was hailed as the best race horse since Citation (Triple Crown winner of 1948 who was the first horse in history to earn a million dollars) if not the best ever. Secretariat’s trainer, Lucien Laurin would later be quoted: “With God as my witness, she [Ruffian] may even be better than Secretariat.” But Ruffian’s spectacular career would be plagued by injury, and the world would never know just how good she really was. Ruffian made a good argument for any person who attempted to prove that leg injuries in racehorses are somewhat influenced by genetics. Her sire, Reviewer, bounced back from two broken legs, but a third and final fracture ended his life. Her dam, Shenanigans, was coming out of a successful intestinal surgery when she thrashed and broke two legs. She was euthanized shortly after. Ruffian’s injuries fit into that pattern well. Regardless of injury, Ruffian won her first ten starts, and either broke or equaled the stakes or track record in eight of them. Her average winning margin was about eight lengths. Jane Schwartz’s biography of the filly is both well written and extremely informative. It takes the reader away from the present and back to the years of 1972 through 1975, and its vivid descriptions make it easy to forget the present time and reality.
Schwartz follows the life and career of Ruffian from birth to tragic death in her wonderful biography of Racing’s greatest filly. Ruffian had appeared to be special, in a class of her own far above all others, even before she set foot on the racetrack. She was large and finely sculpted with a great attitude to match. Schwartz beautifully illustrates a special kind of grace about Ruffian that was obvious just by simply being in her presence—she took each step as though carefully choosing where to place each foot, as though where she stepped was the only place that foot belonged. “But at night, with moonlight filtering down on her, she was even more striking. Silvery, shining, radiant, like something in a dream. Only she wasn’t a dream. She was real…Always first. Always on the lead. Perfect” (Schwartz 4). Ruffian acted as though she knew how great she was—as though she thought she deserved all the respect in the world. “Ruffian was the boss here; she was calling all the shots. If she could speak, she couldn’t have made herself any clearer” (Schwartz 169). Schwartz also illustrates Ruffian’s absolute love of running many times throughout the book. To her it was all fun, a game to be played. "It [letting other horses catch her before her final burst of speed] was a way of psyching them [the other horses] out. She would fool them into thinking they could overtake her, then she’d fly off and break their hearts” (Schwartz 243). Ruffian: Burning from the Start takes the readers through each of the filly’s spectacular wins, one by one, and explains details about every important event in the horse’s life, including her three injuries, from birth to death.
Schwartz uses excellent comparisons throughout the book in her descriptions. For example, “…but to Whiteley, those chances [the horse getting hurt] were like flies in the summer heat—just because you could never kill them all doesn’t mean you stop swatting” (Schwartz 139). Schwartz subtly foreshadows Ruffians injuries, especially the final one several times throughout the book. “But each year he [Ruffian’s sire Reviewer] had fractured the cannon bone in his right hind leg. Speed could do that to a horse. The good ones always got hurt, sooner or later” (Schwartz 45). From racing to sidelined with a hairline fracture, to racing again, the story builds up to Ruffian’s final race, a match race against 1975 Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure—the race that ended Ruffian’s career and life. Ruffian’s injuries are described in great detail in a heartbreaking account of one of the worst incidents in the history of horse racing. Schwartz explains that the filly’s foot was so badly fractured that it was hanging only by threads of tendon and ligaments, and that she was standing on bare bone. It was a race that was supposed to answer many questions. Could the undefeated filly beat the Kentucky Derby winner? Can a girl beat a boy? Will Ruffian ever lose? To anyone? Is there any horse that can keep up with her? But the race answered none of these questions. No one will ever know which horse would have won, and Ruffian had sacrificed her life for nothing. The race proved nothing. The problem with match races is this: instead of using tactful planning to win the race, both horses have to use their sheer speed, and which ever can run faster for longer wins. This puts a significantly higher amount of stress on a thoroughbred’s fragile legs. Because of the disastrous outcome, the race between Ruffian and Foolish Pleasure was the last match race ever run in America.
Ruffian’s operation, a desperate and probably hopeless attempt to save the great filly’s life, is also described in great detail. The operation was a success, but Ruffian refused to give up—she refused to allow Foolish Pleasure to defeat her. When coming out of the anesthesia, Ruffian acted as though she was still running the race, even though she was lying down, which resulted in her further injuring herself. She was euthanized before she ever stood up. Schwartz uses the horse’s love of running to help create a somewhat peaceful ending for the filly out of what ultimately was the worst a fate a young horse can face. “…it was so simple, all she ever wanted was to run, morning or afternoon, that was all she ever asked—Let me run!—faster now and faster, finally released…no pain, no terror anymore…she was running easily now, easily, straight into the light, free” (Schwartz 315).
Jane Schwartz, who has written for many publications including the New York Times and Sports Illustrated, definitely has done her homework here. Ruffian: Burning from the Start, which required much research including personal interviews with the people who worked with the filly, was extremely well written—heartbreaking and incredibly enjoyable all at once. When reading this biography of one of horseracing’s all time greatest athletes, it is easy to forget that it is all true. Schwartz’s writing style creates the feeling of reading a novel instead of a historical biography, and it is easy for the reader to find himself or herself caught up in thinking that it was all made up—that it is a great story fashioned by the author—that none of it really happened. At the same time, it is so incredibly informative, that one will come away from reading perhaps without even realizing how much he or she has learned. It is not only very informative, but is so interesting that it pulls the reader in and is very difficult to set down, even for a moment.

My Past Handicapping Success (and Failure)

2004--my first Kentucky Derby.
I chose--Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Tapit
They Finished--Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Imperialism (Tapit was 9th)
Picked Ashado to win the Oaks and Madcap Escapade for third.


2005--didn't get to watch the race
I chose--High Fly, Bellamy Road, Bandini
They finished--Giacomo, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex (High Fly was 20, Bellamy Road 7, Bandini 18)

2006--My personal favorite
I chose--Barbaro, Jazil, Lawyer Ron, Brother Derek
They finished--Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer (Jazil 4th, Brother Derek 5th, Lawyer Ron 12th).

2007--Getting better!
I chose--Curlin, Street Sense, Scat Daddy, Hard Spun.
they finished--Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin (Scat Daddy 18th)
Curlin had a rough trip but ran a great race.
Picked Rags to Riches for the Ladies, but who didn't?

2007 Preakness Stakes
I chose--Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun
They finished--Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun
And there it was--my first TRI. I was at my own graduation party when my mom came out telling me my 1-2 just photo finished and she didn't know who won.

2007 Jockey Club Gold Cup
I chose--Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Political Force, Sun King
They finished--Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Political Force, Sun King.
What? Now we're up to Superfecta's?

2007 Breeder's cup Juvenile
Liked War Pass, Wicked Style, and Tale of Ekati
They finished-- War Pass, Pyro, Kodiak Kowboy. (Tale of Ekati 4th, Wicked Style 12th didn't like surface.) Pyro wasn't on my radar yet, even after the champagne.

2007 Breeder's cup Distaff
I chose--Ginger Puch, Histericalady, Octave
they finished--Ginger Punch, Histericalady, Octave.
The one time I really wished I was a gambler. The payoff for this one was pretty good.

2007 Breeder's Cup Turf
I chose Dylan Thomas, English Channel, Red Rocks, Better Talk Now
They finished--English Channel, Shamdinan, Red Rocks, Better Talk Now, Dylan Thomas.

2007 Breeder's Cup Classic
I chose--Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Street Sense (didn't think Lawyer Ron ran his best when he barely lost to Curlin in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Big Mistake.
they finished--Curlin, Hard Spun, Awesome Gem. (Lawyer Ron 7th, Street Sense 4th)

I haven't had too much luck yet this year in the Kentucky Derby preps. But I liked War Pass for the Tampa Bay Derby like everyone else. Liked Atoned to place and Big Truck to show. Liked Big Brown, Elysium Fields and Hey Byrn in the Florida Derby, not necessarily in that order. Liked Visionaire in the Gotham. Other than that, I've been surprised. Hopefully I'll figure it all out by derby day. The one horse that's doing me well is Pyro. He's been my winner twice this year, and hopefully will do so again on Bluegrass Day, and ultimately, Derby Day.

A Rivalry Not Forgotten (the 1978 Triple Crown)

(In both above photos: Alydar left, Affirmed right. 1978 Belmont Stakes.)

Affirmed. He's the only Triple Crown winner that comes with a standby "Triple Crown Loser." But the name Affirmed cannot be mentioned without immediate association to another great colt--Alydar. Alydar is the only horse in the history of the Triple Crown to finish second in all three races. Not even to mention being second to the same horse. Affirmed and Alydar had one of the most compelling rivalries in the history of the "sport of kings" in 1977 and 1978. They raced each other ten times. With the exception of Alydar's first race, no horse would ever finish better than third in any race that had both Affirmed and Alydar on the card. Nine times they were first and second. Seven times Affirmed won. Three times Alydar. Affirmed actually crossed the line first in their last meeting, the 1978 Travers Stakes, but was disqualified after obvious interference with Alydar on the far turn. Alydar fell far back, but showed an immense amount of heart when he fough back to be second, and then placed first after Affirmed's DQ. No matter, the race proved nothing. Then again, what needed to be proven? Affirmed had finished first in all three Triple Crown races, only the eleventh horse to do so in 103 years. Alydar got a little closer to him each time--a length and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby. A neck in the Preakness Stakes. A desperate nose in the Belmont Stakes after the two ran neck and neck for a mile before the finish.

If you were to ask me today to describe Alydar in one sentence, this is what I might say:

Alydar was a great horse with the terrible misfortune of being born in 1975, the same year as Affirmed. Had he been born any other year, we very well may have had twelve Triple Crown Winners. Okay, fine, that was two sentences. If you asked me which was the better horse, a part of me will always want to say Alydar, because I have a tendency to side with the underdog. But I think Affirmed proved more than once that he was the stronger horse, even if he was smaller. Alydar had a strong following that refused to believe Affirmed was the better horse, but most of those opinions were put to rest in the 1978 Belmont Stakes. But Alydar got his revenge. The two horses ended up at the same breeding farm in adjacent stalls. It was here that Alydar finally got to be superior to Affirmed. Alydar produced, among many greats, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner of 1987, Alysheba (was fourth in the Belmont, Bet Twice the winner) and 1989 Kentucky Derrby and Preakness Stakes runner up and Belmont Stakes winner, Easy Goer. Of course Easy Goer is remembered for being unlucky to have been defeated by Sunday Silence in three of the most important races of his life. This is a different story for me. Here, I really think Easy Goer was the better horse, and that he had more adversity to overcome than Sunday Silence. Not to take anything away from Sunday Silence. After winning the Kentucky Derby, The Preakness Stakes, being second in the Belmont Stakes and winning The Breeder's Cup Classic (all in the presence of Easy Goer) he deserved every ounce of credit he got. I do find it very ironic that Alydar's son would have a similar situation to his own. But, on the bright side, between the two previously mentioned sons, Alydar produced winners of all three Triple Crown races. Affirmed produced no Triple Crown race winners.

Both horses were euthanized, Alydar in 1990 and Affirmed in 2001 due to injuries. Affirmed fractured and dislocated his ankle. Alydar shattered his cannon bone after allegedly "kicking his stall wall." He underwent successful surgery, but while in recovery, turned to the sound of a mare in the pasture and broke his femur. He was put down. There was much suspicion and controversy over Alydar's death, and many believe that he was killed in an insurance scam by Calumet Farm. Calumet filed bankruptcy shortly after his death.

It's strange the effect that Alydar had on Affirmed's story, but I guess it's fitting. Alydar was a fighter in the strongest sense of the word. Most horses would give up after losing time after time, especially to the same horse. Alydar and Affirmed both left everything on the track each time they raced each other, and they both had alot of heart and guts. The name Affirmed can't be mentioned without alluding to the great Alydar. Without Alydar, there is no Affirmed. Everything great that he did loses its significance if you take Alydar out of the picture.

PS, I strongly encourage you to watch the 1978 Belmont Stakes. You can Youtube it. I've seen alot of great horse races, but that is by far the most incredible thing I've ever witnessed. It's one of the best horse races that's ever been run.

(Affirmed, top. Alydar, bottom.)

There's Nothing Majestic About the Warrior

Big Brown (left) and Majestic Warrior (right) (photos from horsephotos.com)

So with the 2008 Florida Derby now in the past, could the hype on Majestic Warrior finally be over? I haven’t been a fan of this colt from the beginning, though I must admit I liked him for the 2007 Champagne Stakes. But his victory in the Grade I Hopeful Stakes does not and cannot make him a top derby contender by itself, and the cold hard fact is that Majestic Warrior has nothing to back that win up. He was a disappointing sixth in the Champagne as the favorite over eventual top derby contenders War Pass and Pyro. And okay, I’ll give it to him—the foot problem is an acceptable excuse. But to come back and be last in the Louisiana Derby? I don’t care about the long layoff. Look at Atoned. He ran a very good race against Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby. War Pass crushed foes in his three year old debut, and his layoff was almost as long. The son of AP Indy may be beautiful, but beauty alone doesn’t get a horse anywhere, at least not a racehorse. Majestic Warrior got pretty decent support in the Florida Derby this afternoon, but was never even in the picture. Now Big Brown’s absolute annihilation of the very tough field is a whole other topic on which I have no comment except “wow.” Big Brown has just sealed himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby, and while he doesn’t have the experience one would like to see, he certainly doesn’t lack the talent. I am not going to say that Majestic Warrior lacks talent either. He still is a good horse. Most horses don’t get the pleasure of winning a grade I race at any point in their lives. I just don’t think that he is Kentucky Derby material. After today, he may or may not run, but I don’t think he’ll be a factor. I am not ready to discount War Pass just yet. If he can handle the distance and gets a good trip, he’ll be tough to beat. But here’s where Big Brown will get the edge over War Pass: War Pass absolutely HAS to run the front. He just has to, and he made that very clear in the Tampa Bay Derby, when he finished dead last in his first career defeat after a slow break and a trip around the track behind other horses for the first time. Big Brown won from the font today, but he has also won from a stalking position, which is a very good quality for a Derby horse to have—the ability to lay close, and also the versatility to adapt to different circumstances and win from different positions. Of course Pyro is still a big player, and he’s been very impressive at three. In fact, War Pass is the only horse that can beat him it seems, and I think that will change with the longer distance they’ll have on Derby Day.

33 Days, 22 Hours, and 55 Minutes...

(from left to right, Pyro, Big Brown, War Pass, El Gato Malo, and Court Vision)
...and the horses keep coming. My goal of picking the 2008 Kentucky Derby trifecta correctly for the first time this year is going to be much harder than I origianally thought. Partly becuase there are so many good horses, but at the same time, partly because there isn't one in particular that stands out above the rest. But with some of the biggest preps still to come, that may change. Big Brown definately made a huge mark this weekend when he won the Florida Derby so convincingly, but the field was not as strong as many would like to think. Of course Elysium Fields was a strong contender, but he was clearly not himself yesterday. Smooth Air and Tomcito completed the Florida Derby trifecta. Then there's Majestic Warrior, who is a whole other story. Literally. Of course Pyro is still the strongest contender for the Run for the Roses until proven otherwise. We'll see what the Bluegrass Stakes does for him. Pyro has beaten everything thrown at him this year, and won every two year old race that didn't have War Pass on the card. And anyone who knows anything about horse racing, knows that War Pass could not be beaten as a two year old. Basically, my current top ten is as follows:

1. Pyro (still a believer that he's the best)
2. Big Brown (can't discount that incredible Florida Derby performance)
3. War Pass (not ready to give up on him after one lousy race)
4. El Gato Malo (looking good out west, had a troubled trip when beaten by Colonel John)
5. Court Vision (had excuse in Fountain of Youth flop, will drop if he doesn't run well next time)
6. Colonel John (looks good)
7. Denis of Cork (undefeated but will not get big test until derby day. Impressed in Southwest)
8. Visionaire (looked good in Gotham and has consistency on his side--sympathy vote for Barbaro's trainer.)
9. Georgie Boy (another tough westerner who showed he's a contender in the San Felipe.)
10. Yankee Bravo (will get another chance in Santa Anita Derby)

Those are my top choices for the Big Race. And yes, they will change a hundred more times before the announcer calls "and they're off in the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby..."

(from left to right, Visionaire, Georgie Boy, Colonel John, Denis of Cork. photos by horsephotos.com)

Big Truck Pulls Big Upset in Tampa; War Pass Imperfect.

Anyone daring enough to have been holding a win ticket on Big Truck for the Tampa Bay Derby probably made a decent chunk of change this afternoon. Big Truck (top right) went off as the 7-1 second choice behind champion War Pass (top left) at 1-9 (which was an exceptional 1-20 when the race finally started). As the field of seven walked over from the stable area, the crowd looked each one over carefully, and it was clear who they thought was the best—War Pass was applauded as he walked by the stands. And why not? The undefeated Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner looked good. The sun glistened off his perfectly shiny coat as he walked by, the last in the field of seven. Last year’s Eclipse Award two year old champion deserves every ounce of credit he has gotten thus far. I had gone to the track for this race thinking that War Pass was the only horse in the field that even mattered. As they walked by me in my spot on the rail (I had to fight through a large crowd of people who’d had a bit much to drink to get there), I picked Atoned for the place, and Big Truck for the show. War Pass, of course was going to win. They say the overconfident can be humbled very quickly and unexpectedly. I wonder now if that is true even of innocent spectators. War Pass is one of the best three year olds in the country, and he may have been the best today, but the colt was clearly not himself. Big Truck got decent support after his runner up performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and Atoned also looked very good, and went off as the third choice at 9-1.

Champion War Pass did not break sharply and never hit the lead. In fact, he was shut out, stuck behind horses early—something he had never experienced before. He appeared to be in good position around the backstretch, but never made a move and faded to be a shocking and disappointing dead last. Atoned carried the lead at the top of the stretch and looked free and clear, but Big Truck rallied fast and hard to best Todd Pletcher’s trainee by a neck at the wire. Take nothing away from Atoned, however. He ran very strongly and gamely in his three year old debut, but couldn’t quite hold off Big Truck, who was second to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, also at Tampa Bay Downs. As for War Pass, I don’t think this loss means much for him in the long haul. It’s always disappointing when an undefeated horse with that much talent suddenly becomes imperfect. But War Pass will get another crack at it in the Wood Memorial, provided that his training goes well between now and then. But he’s either going to have to get the lead on Derby day, or learn how to deal with being behind other horses, or he will not win.