The Field is Set!

1. Cool Coal Man
2. Tale of Ekati
3. Anak Nakal
4. Court Vision
5. Eight Belles
6. Z Fortune
7. Big Truck
8. Visionaire
9. Pyro
10. Colonel John
11. Z Humor
12. Smooth Air
13. Bob Black Jack
14. Monba
15. Adriano
16. Denis of Cork
17. Cowboy Cal
18. Recapturetheglory
19. Gayego
20. Big Brown

Let's start with Big Brown--I hate him in the 20 spot. He's a good horse, but this is not a positive post for him. Not that it can't be done--after all, they said the Florida Derby couldn't be won from 12. But this will be difficult, especially if he doesn't break well. In fact, he'll need to break VERY well to not lose any ground here. I also hate the extreme confidence (or just plain arrogance) that is coming from his connections. But unlike many others, I'm not going to take that out on the horse. He's a good horse and I still think he's got a shot.

Pyro and Colonel John--both have drawn good post positions and should both run their race on Saturday.

Visionaire--I absolutely love him in the eight slot. Matz won from that slot with Barbaro, so putting this guy there makes sense.

Eight Belles--I'm so happy the filly is running! She might get bumped around a little in the 5 slot, but she seems like a tuff filly. She should be a factor here.

Court Vision--should be fine from four because he's a closer, and has been working very well in his new blinkers.

Adriano--gets hype after Prado chose him over the others, but in my mind, he's not a dirt horse. He could run well here, but I don't know that I see him winning

Monba and Cowboy Cal--Monba looks good, but it's hard to tell how he'll handle Churchill because his best performances have come on synthetic. But his Fountain of Youth loss was not without good reason (being stepped on and coming out with a big cut, not to mention the breathing problem he had surgery for while he was out of training because of the injury). Cowboy Cal is a turf horse all the way. He was seventh in his only start on the dirt, but it was quite some time ago, so there is chance he could turn the tables here.

1. Cool Coal Man

Record: 8-4-1-0

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Perhaps the Fountain of Youth wasn't as good as it looked, but if it was, he'll be a player. Most people thought Elysium Fields was the better horse that day, but he flopped in his second chance in the Flordia Derby. Of course that, combined with Cool Coal Man's dismal Bluegrass effort doesn't give me much reason to think this horse will win the Derby. But I've been wrong before, and I could be wrong about this one too.

2. Tale of Ekati

Record: 6-3-1-0

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Was fairly impressive when he ran down a tiring War Pass in the Wood Memorial, but he'll need to take another step in the right direction to win this one. He is a beautiful animal, and was a solid two year old. The Wood is his only really solid three year old effort, and the time was quite slow, even after the fast fractions set by War Pass. He did also beat Court Vision in that race, but I don't really know what to think of this one. That day, I was very impressed with him. I guess I'll find out on Saturday.

3. Anak Nakal

Record: 6-2-1-0

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I am simply wondering what happened to his two year old form. Zito says he thinks the Wood was a good race, but Anak Nakal has a lot of work to do if he wants to win this race. He likes Churchill and won a race there at two, but he's been pretty lackluster this year. I'm not sure I would have run him if he were my horse, but obviously, he's not. Anyway, I love that he's by Victory Gallop, who of course was 2, 2, and 1 by a nose in the 1998 Triple Crown against Real Quiet.

4. Court Vision

Record: 6-3-1-2

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Has been working very well in the blinkers, and never runs a bad race. He hasn't been able to win this year, but he never runs a bad one, and he has never been worse than third. He still has a good shot at this race. I don't know what to think about him because I think he's a good horse, but he's disappointed me twice this year. One more strike and he's out.

5. Eight Belles

Record: 9-5-2-1

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The lovely lady is really running. I am so excited. I would love to see her win this thing, and it isn't out of the question. She's got talent. She might get roughed up a little coming from five, but she is a big girl, and she should be tough. What really impresses me about her is her versatility. She also has plenty of experience. I've seen her win from the front and the back, and if she turns it on Saturday, she could be either leading the boys or chasing them down the homestretch. If she runs her race, I think she'll be a top five factor. Interestingly, she actually has the most experience of all the horses running in the Derby.

6. Z Fortune

Record: 6-3-2-0

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Gets an advantage over Gayego (who beat him in the Arkansas Derby) with his post position here. Z had a rough post at Oaklawn, and ran very well but couldn't quite catch Gayego. He has a much better post here, and he is a solid contender. This horse was undefeated before he raced Pyro in the Risen Star, and though he was dismal in the next, he rebounded well int he Arkansas. Look for him to be fighting hard to win this down the stretch.

7. Big Truck

Record: 8-3-1-1

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I'm sad to say that I don't really expect anything much from this colt. I saw him win the Tampa Bay Derby, and I would love to be able to say that I saw a Kentucky Derby winner in person (well, I actually did--I saw Monarchos at Claiborne Farms). I think it would be so amazing to be able to say, Hey, I was there when that Derby winner won...or whatever. I was just glad at this point that he was running because my luck ran out with War Pass and Atoned dropping out. Big Truck is a nice looking colt. But he doesn't stack up with the best of this field. Let's leave it at that.

8. Visionaire

Record: 6-3-1-1

The Michael Matz colt. I like Michael Matz alot because I followed his career when he was a show jumper, and of course when he trained Barbaro, well, that pretty much did it. I fell in love with Barbaro and backed him for the Derby before alot of others did. Visionaire will be coming form the same gate slot, and the 8 is actually a very good spot. This should be a fine race for him. He's a very nice, consistent horse.

9. Pyro

Record: 7-3-2-1

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Of course, we come to Pyro--the major Derby favorite before his Bluegrass Stakes that wasn't. If he's been working well at Churchill, and we know he likes the track, he should be in the picture on Saturday. I've lowered him out of the number one spot, but he's still up there in my top three. I can't forget what he did in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. He's a very good horse, and he should like the distance. I dont' really care for the looks of this horse (or at least not the way he runs), but he is very effective, and looks don't mean a thing in a race like this.

10. Colonel John

Record: 6-4-2-0

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When you lay everything out, past performances, pedigree, and post position, this guy probably has the best shot at this race. His Santa Anita was incredible--his closing kick was most impressive. He hasn't run on dirt, but his pedigree actually says he should be better on dirt than he is on synthetic, which is a very frightening thought. I'm not going to lie, I still resent him a little for knocking El Gato Malo off the trail, but I'm starting to like him more. He's an awesome horse, and he has a very, very good shot here. His pattern looks like this: 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1... It looks like it's time for a second. PS, I'm not that big on the patterns, I'm just throwing them out there.

11. Z Humor

Record: 8-2-0-3

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Not sure how I feel about his one. He ran solidly at two, but he hasn't done much to inspire me this year. However, he does seem to be improving with each race (this season) and while I don't expect anything great from him, and don't necessarily think he belongs in this race, I can't completely discount him, because as soon as I do, he'll win. Pattern people, here's a good one. Z Humor has won the first of each set of four races. The Kentucky Derby is one in his third set of four, so if he goes by his pattern, he should win.

12. Smooth Air

Record: 7-3-2-2

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Was much the second best in the Florida Derby--a statement with two meanings. First, Big Brown was much the best that day. Smooth Air was beaten six lengths. But Smooth Air was seven lengths better than the rest of the field, so it was a very good effort for him. His absolute biggest issue for saturday is this fever he's had. He's missed training due to this, and though he's fine now and all set to run, the timing couldn't be worse. Missing training before the Kentucky Derby can be detrimental.

13. Bob Black Jack

Record: 7-3-2-1

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Santa Anita Derby runner up has distance questions, but certainly no lack of class or talent. He currently holds the world record for six furlongs, which he scored when he won the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita. So his best performances have also been on the Poly. He'll figure into the early speed of this race, although his connections want to back him off the pace a little to try to make up for the distance. Figure him to be a factor if he handles the dirt and runs like he did in the Santa Anita Derby. The only horse that beat him that day was Colonel John.

14. Monba

Record: 5-3-0-0

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His best efforts have come on the synthetic surface, but he had good excuse in his Fountain of Youth so it is very difficult to tell how he'll run at Churchill. Monba is a good horse, and he should be a contender if he can transfer his form to the dirt. While he had the down time for from the injury (very minor, just a bad cut) that he recieved when he was stepped on in the Fountain of Youth, he got throat surgery, and that could have been what turned him around. Not to say that he wasn't good before, because he was. But maybe he's even better now.

15. Adriano

Record: 7-3-1-0

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Another good turf horse coming in with a good performance on the synthetic. Adriano was the center of a good deal of hype when Edgar Prado, who rode Barbaro in 2006, chose him over all his other possible Derby mounts, which included Tale of Ekati and Monba. This horse looked most impressive in the Lane's End, but again, not so solid on the dirt so far. He didn't run well in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and unlike Monba, was not surrounded by good excuse. However, like every other horse in this field, he earned his way here, and there is no reason he shouldn't get a shot. And he could do really well, or he could put up a dismal effort on the Churchill dirt.

16. Denis of Cork

Record: 4-3-0-0

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Looked like a top player until the Illinois Derby. He got lucky with his graded earnings and just barely got in, but he deserves to be in this race. His Illinois wasn't his best, and his Southwest was most impressive. This horse will need to step up a little to win this race, but he has a shot. If he can return to his form when he was undefeated, he'll be tough to beat. But his Illinois Derby effort shakes the confidence a little, and sixteen isn't the world's best post, especially not when the four horses outside of him are all front runners. We'll see what happens.

17. Cowboy Cal

Record: 6-3-2-0

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He's a turf horse, but a very good one at that. He's only been worse than second once, but here's the scary thing--it was his only dirt start. He's a very good horse, and I keep telling myself that Barbaro started on turf. But Barbaro also won on dirt twice before the Derby. Cowboy Cal ran second to Monba on the synthetic in the Bluegrass, and it was a very good effort. If he can transfer to dirt on this second try, he could be a factor. I absolutely won't overlook this guy.

18. Recapturetheglory

Record: 6-2-1-2

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Reminiscent of War Emblem, this guy comes in off a wire to wire Illinois Derby win. He'll be a long shot, no doubt, but I will never completely overlook any horse--I've learned the hard way. War Emblem was a long shot on Derby Day, and he went on to do some pretty impressive things. As for Recapturetheglory, he definitely will not get the comfortable pace he got at Hawthorne on Derby Day, and if he's one dimensional, he could run poorly if he doesn't get the lead. I'm actually quite interested to see how he does on Saturday. Again for fans of patterns--if he runs all three triple crown races according to his, he'll run well in the Derby and Preakness and win the Belmont. He's won every third race. But, they can't all run on patterns. I don't expect too much from this one.

19. Gayego

Record: 5-3-2-0
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Gayego brings excellent credentials with his Arkansas Derby win, and what I mean, really, is that the Arkansas Derby is one of the strongest prep races. Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin--they all came from that one. Gayego was the last to pick a post, so he got what was left, which after Big Brown's connections surprisingly picked 20, was 19. Gayego has excellent speed figures (in comparison) and definitely has a shot if he gets a good trip. For any fans of patterns, he's been 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st in that order, so if he keeps that going he'll be second here.

20. Big Brown

Record: 3-3-0-0

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Undefeated Big Brown comes in as the morning line favorite, even after drawing the extreme outside post. The post position will not be a big issue for him IF he gets out clean and fast and is able to get a good position before the first turn, but that is a big if. Big Brown's connections seem to think it is impossible for him to lose this race, and I have to say--they have good reasons to be so confident but absoluetly NOTHING is impossible in horse racing. Man o' War lost a race. Secretariat lost races. Native Dancer lost the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, this also means it is not impossible for Big Brown to win big, like Barbaro did. But that's a stretch. Saturday will have all the answers.

A Single Fatal Step (tribute to Go For Wand)

“…She’s been mentioned in the form as being compared with Personal Ensign and Ruffian, and that’s really quite an honor—even to be categorized with that class of fillies” (Badgett).

Her name was Go For Wand, and she was something extremely special—the kind of horse that only comes around once in a lifetime. Born in 1987 to Obeah by way of Deputy Minister, Go For Wand was a terror on the track, winning ten of thirteen lifetime starts, and finishing second in two others. At two, she was second in the Frizette, and then went on to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was the Eclipse Award Champion Two Year Old Filly of 1989. At three, she won the Beaumont Stakes at Belmont Park by eight and a half lengths, then won the Ashland Stakes by five before heading to the Kentucky Oaks. She was upset in that race, beaten easily by Seaside Attraction. But the resilient Go For Wand came back to win the Mother Goose, the Test, the Alabama (over previously undefeated Charon), the Maskette, and the Beldame, in which she set a new stakes record. For these wins, she was also later named Three Year Old Champion Filly by the Eclipse Awards in 1990.

Go For Wand’s next goal was the 1990 Breeder’s Cup Distaff, a much anticipated mach up between the top two fillies in the country—defending BCD winner Bayakoa, who was distinguished out west, and Go For Wand, the “terror of the sophomore distaff set” (Cantey). But the race did not go as planned for Go For Wand, to say the least. The 1989 BCJF and BCD winners promised a good show—and they both did their very best to deliver. But what appeared to be one of the best races in the history of the sport quickly turned into one of racing’s most tragic days.

The 1990 Breeder’s Cup Distaff may have been one of the most highly anticipated horse races of all time. Bayakoa, the returning champion, had been running well the entire year in the west, and Go For Wand was considered to be one of the best fillies of her generation. She was expected to win that afternoon. “I just can’t see that the number two horse, Go For Wand, can be beaten…” (Johnson). But these words rang eerily foreshadowing before the race began. “The question with her today is, this is her third start in 24 days. No matter how easily she’s winning, she has to put something into those races if she’s got an Achilles Heel, that could be the only one today” (Cantey).

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Randy Romero, who had ridden “Wanda” to all of her victories, was up again for this race. “I was riding Go For Wand in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff. It’s just like the Olympics. It’s the Ultimate” (Romero). The Champions paired up at the start of the race, and ran together throughout. They called it a “clash of champions” as the two, side by side, entered the homestretch of one of the greatest battles the sport has seen. “I could hear him [Bayakoa’s jockey] urging his mare to come to me, and he couldn’t come to me” (Romero). Go For Wand wouldn’t give in, and it appeared that Bayakoa didn’t have quite enough speed to run the younger filly down. Go For Wand was on her way to glory, she was beating all her rivals—horses her age, and older mares.

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“And my horse, I was the strength; I was the power at the time, when it happened, because I was in front” (Romero). Go For Wand was unwavering, and Bayakoa was battling back steadily. It was a two horse race at that point. “Go for Wand on the inside, Bayakoa battling back, a dramatic distaff…Go For Wand, Grimly holding on, Bayakoa right there” (1990 BCD Announcer Call). One of them had to falter. Bayakoa and Go For Wand had been dueling the entire race, and for both of them to cross the wire together—it would have brought back memories of Affirmed and Alydar in the Belmont Stakes. But no one expected or was prepared for the outcome of this race. “I was the man; I was the winner at the time that it happened, so far” (Romero).

Go For Wand’s Breeder’s Cup came to the most sudden and devastating of endings at the sixteenth pole. Her life and career were now in jeopardy as Bayakoa went forward to win her second consecutive Breeder’s Cup Distaff. “OH! And a TRAGEDY as Go For Wand has fallen at the sixteenth pole! And 55,000 here, in shock as Go For Wand has broken down at the sixteenth pole” (1990 BCD Announcer Call). Her right front ankle had given out, giving Bayakoa the freedom to run home to an easy win, and changing Go For Wand’s immediate goal to mere survival. But Wanda refused to give up. She stood back up. “I could see her out of the corner of my eye after I fell and hit the ground; I could see her leg was just flopping. She was just trying to run—to get to the wire, still trying to win” (Romero). Go For Wand was galloping along, just trying to do what she was born to do—win. As she ran, it was clear that her ankle joint wasn’t right—it was severely broken. It is likely that she actually broke her ankle earlier in the race, and her determination—her desire to continue running—is what caused it to finally give out. When Go For Wand fell, her situation immediately became life or death. “And it happened so damn fast. I mean, we’re talking about splits of a second” (Romero). Officials caught up with Go For Wand, and were able to get her back down. She was half standing on her hind legs, and her body was turned so that her neck and front legs were laying sideways on the track. “…and it is rapidly turning into the most tragic day in American horse racing history. A hollow victory [for Bayakoa] indeed…” (1990 BCD Announcer Call). The lower portion of her right front leg was pulverized; her injury was hopelessly severe. Go For Wand was euthanized right there on the track. “Right now, I can just picture it” (Romero). The fabulous filly’s jockey was put on a stretcher with multiple fractures in and around his shoulder, and taken to the hospital. “I didn’t think I was hurt that bad, but I was” (Romero).

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Bayakoa’s trainer, Ron McAnally, didn’t bring much peace to the situation with this quote:

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“As fans of this game, we must recognize and respect that sometimes these beautiful animals give their lives for our enjoyment” (McAnally).

But perhaps this was one of the most well put quotes about horseracing tragedy ever spoken. Go For Wand gave her life, for OUR enjoyment. But no one can deny that Wanda loved to run—it was all she knew. And she was great at it—probably one of the best fillies that ever set foot on the track. She’d been compared with Personal Ensign, a filly that never lost and defeated Kentucky Derby winning filly Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeder’s Cup Distaff. Randy Romero had ridden Personal Ensign to that victory, and his answer when asked if there was any comparison between the champ and Go For Wand was, “Awfully close, awfully close” (Romero).

Go For Wand was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1997. The Maskette Handicap, which she won as a three year old, was renamed the Go For Wand Handicap in her honor in 1992, and is run annually under that name. She was buried in the infield at Saratoga. She will never be forgotten.

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The Citations are:

Billy Badgett, Go For Wand’s trainer.
Charlsie Cantey, TV reporter on BCD Day.
Randy Romero, Go For Wand and Personal Ensign’s jockey.
Ron McAnally, Bayakoa’s trainer.
Go For Wand’s owner was Jane DuPont Lunger of Christiana Stables.

A War Pass Free Top Ten

1. Big Brown--if he keeps running like he has been....

2. Pyro--still not giving him up

3. Colonel John--Santa Anita impressive, hasn't run on dirt but has the right bloodlines with sire Tiznow as a two time Breeder's Cup Classic winner.

4. Proud Spell--the best of a filly crop that looks stonger than most of the colts do

5. Visionaire--always tries

6. Court Vision--worked very well at Churchill

7. Monba--best efforts have come on Poly, FOY was a throwout

8. Eight Belles-- filly has been most impressive this year.

9. Gayego--needs to reproduce Arkansas Derby

10. Z Fortune--may have been the best in Arkansas.

War Pass Will Pass On the Derby

War Pass was not working well this week, and as a precaution, some x-rays were taken. They discovered a fracture in his left front ankle, so he is out of training until it heals up. It's not very severe and he is walking soundly, so it shouldn't be a career ending problem. He will be back, it's just unfortunate timing. This will change the chemistry of the Derby quite a bit, as Big Brown will probably be the leader now. This is basically the biggest piece of news on the day today.

Atoned and Tomcito Out

Atoned (left) and Tomcito (below) both made last ditch efforts to gain some graded earnings, and neither ran anywhere near well enough in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes this afternoon. Both will skip the Derby now. Behindatthebar was the winner of the Lexington Stakes, and if he goes to the Derby, he'll be running on back to back two week layoffs. His last race was two weeks ago, and the Derby is in two weeks. It will make things difficult for him.

Blackberry Road, Yankee Bravo, El Gato Malo are Out

(Blackberry Road)

Blackberry Road--Finally drops out after disappointing in the Arkansas Derby. The colt seems to always have something to show in a race, but has only won once in more than enough lifetime starts. He looked more promising at the beginning of the year than he does now.

Yankee Bravo--Needed to win or place in either the Louisiana Derby or the Santa Anita Derby to make the budget. It's unfortunate--he deserves to run in that race al much as any of the others. He has talent and we may see him in some big ones later in the year

El Gato Malo--Probably wouldn't have made the graded earnings anyway, but this was a disappointment. He really deserved to run and had a shot at winning, but his Santa Anita Derby dealt him out of the cards. He'll hang around SA and run some races there.

(El Gato Malo)

1915, 1980, 1988, and Now 2008?

It was Regret in 1915. She was the very first Kentucky Derby winner of the female variety.

Genuine Risk won the Derby and was second in the Preakness and Belmont in 1980, making her our closest call to a filly winner of the Triple Crown. Winning Colors won the Derby in 1988. And of course our most recent filly star, Rags to Riches won the Belmont in 2007. This could be the first year in quite some time that a filly runs in the Kentucky Derby, and not just one--two, a situation that hasn't occurred since 1999, when Excellent Meeting and Three Ring finished 5th and 19th respectively. This year, they are Eight Belles, and Proud Spell, both trained by Larry Jones who trained Hard Spun to a Derby second and Preakness third last year. These fillies are both good--in fact, they are the two favorites for the Kentucky Oaks. But do they have the class to beat the boys?

Eight Belles jumped on to the Derby scene about a week ago, and she has every right to be there. She's shown a lot of class in her four starts this year. She's won from the front, from the last, and after one of the most interesting gate breaks I've seen in a while. She's a very large filly, and with the right luck at Churchill Downs, she could be better than the boys on Derby Day. She isn't a definite yet--she's entered in the Derby and the Oaks, and the decision will come down to Derby post position.

Proud Spell was overshadowed by Indian Blessing for quite some time. Indian Blessing is the only horse that's ever beaten her. But Proud Spell defeated the undefeated Indian Blessing in the Santa Anita Oaks, and that race bumped The Juvenile Filly Champ off the Oaks list. Proud Spell is the second highest money earner on the Derby list behind Pyro. I think that Proud Spell would have an excellent shot at either the Oaks or the Derby, wherever she runs. That too, will come down to post position. I suppose this means that if neither filly runs in the Derby, we'll only have an 18 horse field this year.

Top Ten Update

(left: Big Brown)

It's taken me nearly 21 hours to decide how I feel about Pyro's Bluegrass that wasn't yesterday. I'd love to believe that the synthetic made all the difference, and in some ways that makes sense. Regardless, it's not a good way to end preparations for the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown must only prove that his Florida Derby was as good as it looks. And Colonel John, only that he can transfer his Polytrack form to the Dirt. Top Ten is (parentheses show previous number):

1. Big Brown (2)--inexperience is biggest issue

2. Pyro (1)--didn't like Keenland, does like Churchill.

3. Colonel John (4)--Gayego's victory in Arkansas D. further validated his cause

4. War Pass (5)--Distance is an issue.

5. Visionaire (6)--is consistent and may benefit from distance.

6. Tale of Ekati (3)--Wood may not have been as good as it looked, but showed determination

7. Monba (N/A)--Bluegrass winner looks good, surface questions must be answered.

8. El Gato Malo (7)--Santa Anita wasn't his best, may not have enough earnings to get in.

9. Gayego (N/A)--Arkansas Derby looked very good, validated the top horses from the west.

10. Z Forutne (N/A)--Good rebound in Arkansas, needs a little more punch on Derby Day.

Arkansas Derby Validates Westerners

(left: Gayego is the Arkansas Derby winner)

Colonel John is looking better, and he didn't even run today. Gayego ran a fine race to win by one over Z Fortune in the Arkansas Derby, and in his last outing, was second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe. Of course, GB was up there with Colonel John and El Gato Malo as the top three of the west. Z Fortune has a wider trip, and may have been the better horse today, so he is on the right track for the Kentucky Derby as well. Final order of finish was (parentheses indicate my predictions):

1. Gayego (1)

2. Z Fortune (2)

3. Tres Borrachos

4. Indian Sun

5. My Pal Charlie (5)

6. Isabull

7. Golden Yank

8. Blackberry Road (3)

9. King's Silver Son

10. Jazz in the Park

11. Ablaze with Spirit

12. Liberty Bull (4)

13. Shekinah

Hey Byrn Gets Holy Bull

Hey Byrn (left) wins the Holy Bull today, but will have to wait around for some Derby dropouts if he's going to get to run. He's on the bubble with graded earnings.

Bluegrass Picture Doesn't Include Pyro

(Left: Monba winning Bluegrass)

Pyro was well back at the top of the home stretch in the 84th Bluegrass Stakes this afternoon, and he stayed there, finishing tenth. Meanwhile, Todd Pletcher, who's been struggling to get a solid Derby horse, took the top two spots with Monba and Cowboy Cal. The question for Pyro is this: is this performance a track issue? Or is there something underlying that we should look at? It helps his case a great deal that Z Fortune ran so well in the Arkansas Derby just an hour later. Pyro handed the Z his first career defeat in the Risen Star a while back. Pyro never even gave a solid effort today, which is indicative of a dislike of track surface. The race was his first try on synthetic surface. He's already proven that he likes the going at Churchill Downs, as he won his maiden race there as a two year old last year. He'll need to train well to make the rebound, but I'm guessing this is a throw-out race for him. The final complete order of finish was (parentheses show my predictions):

1. Monba (4)

2. Cowboy Cal (3)

3. Kentucky Bear

4. Stevil

5. Visionaire (2)

6. Miner's Claim (6)

7. Halo Najib (8)

8. Medjool

9. Cool Coal Man (5)

10. Pyro (1)

11. Big Truck (7)

12. Stone Bird

For the Record Before They Run....

I like Hey Byrn (left) for the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, and for the Arkansas Derby:

1. Blackberry Road

2. Z Fortune

3. Liberty Bull

4. My Pal Charlie

EDITS: Watching race now, hasn't run yet, liking Gayego alot.

Changes in choices:

1. Gayego

2. Z Fortune

3. Blackberry Road

4. Liberty Bull

5. Golden Yank

6. Isabull

7. Indian Sun

Pyro Faces Tough Bluegrass Field

(From left to right: Monba, Visionaire, Cowboy Cal)

Pyro brings excellent credentials with him to the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes at Keenland this Saturday. But he'll be taking a step up in competition. The Field in post order is as follows:

Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Cowboy Cal, Stevil, Monba, Big Truck, Pyro, Stone Bird, Medjool, Miner's Claim, Halo Najib, and Visionaire.

Visionaire comes into the Bluegrass off an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes, and a third place finish in the Risen Star behind Pyro. He'll have to step up to win here. Halo Najib comes from the Lane's End Stakes, where he was second to an impressive Adriano. Miner's Claim was a very strong second to Big Glen last time out in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway on the undercard of the Lane's End. Medjool runs back from a third in the Lane's End. Pyro of course will be the one to beat in his final Kentucky Derby prep race. Big Truck brings an impressive second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and an upset win in the Tampa Bay Derby, both at Tampa Bay Downs. He'll be taking a big step up in class here. Monba tries to rebound from a no chance run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes--he was checked hard early and came out of the race with a gash. He looks for another chance to Louisville here. Cowboy Cal has been exceptional on turf this year, and Polytrack could be the right move for him. He was dissappointing in his only dirt start to date. Cool Coal Man is proably the next best shot at a win behind Pyro. Here's who I like for this one:

1. Pyro (will fight to stay number one on all the Derby lists)

2. Visionaire (Has to overcome post 12, but has the ability)

3. Cowboy Cal (Poly shouldn't be a problem for him)

4. Monba (Fountain wasn't his best)

5. Cool Coal Man (Looks good, win here would bump him up)

6. Miner's Claim (bested by Big Glen last time, otherwise has done nothing wrong)

7. Big Truck (Is good, but may be outclassed here)

8. Halo Najib (needs a step in the right direction)

I'm pinning all my hopes on Visionaire for this one. I'd really like to see him take this step up and move forward to the Derby.

Clearly, Some Changes are Necessary (Updated Top Ten)

(From Left to Right: Tale of Ekati, Pyro, and Big Brown below)

War Pass both regained and lost my confidence today in the Wood Memorial. He ran a great race, which makes me confident that he is still a good horse, but he tired badly, which makes me wonder about the distance. Whether it was the distace, or the rediculously fast fractions that tired him out, it makes me think twice about his colt's chances in the Derby. The race will be longer, and the pace will undoubtedly be very fast--a problem for a horse like War Pass, and a huge advantage for a horse like Pyro, or even Colonel John. Big Brown has already proven that he can set fast fractions and keep going, and War Pass did that in his own right today. The competition in the Wood was certainly deeper than that in the Florida Derby. But where Big Brown gets the edge over War Pass is in his ability to rate behind horses. War Pass made clear that he won't do that. Big Brown has the ability to lay close, which is a very good quality for a Derby horse to have. Pyro has the patience and ability to sit back behind other horses, wait for an opening, and then charge through to victory, something he may have to do on Derby Day because of the traffic. In a twenty horse field, anything can happen. Traffic is always a problem for someone in the first jewel of the Triple Crown. Parentheses show the previous top ten.

1. Pyro (Pyro)--The best until proven otherwise

2. Big Brown (Big Brown)--Dazzled in Florida Derby; inexperience, surface, and foot issues could be a factor.

3. Tale of Ekati (War Pass)--Looked very good in the Wood Memorial, and had excuse for poor Louisiana Derby Performance

4. Colonel John (El Gato Malo)--Santa Anita Derby makes him the best of the west

5. War Pass (Court Vision)--bounced back well from TBD, still have distance questions

6. Visionaire (Colonel John)--not helped by the fact that Texas Wildcatter ran poorly in the Wood, but will try to prove something in the Bluegrass.

7. El Gato Malo (Denis of Cork)--Dissappointed in Santa Anita; will be listening for possible explainations.

8. Court Vision (Visionaire)--Consistently runs well, but hasn't run a big one in a while

9. Yankee Bravo (Yankee Bravo)--always a factor, but hasn't stepped up into the big leagues as well as one may have hoped.

10. Smooth Air (Cool Coal Man)--His Florida Derby was very impressive; if you take out Big Brown, this one would have been a big winner that day.

Favorites Falter in Illinois

(Recapturetheglory wins the Illinois Derby in convincing fashion at Hawthorne)

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Undefeated Denis of Cork did not run his race today in the Illinois Derby, and an impressive Atoned broke his streak of seconditis, but no the way he wanted to. He was fourth. Atoned looked like he had some late run, but by the time he really got rolling it was much too late. Recapturetheglory had only won once in five starts--a nose victory at Hawthorne Park. He had never won at the allowance level, and this was his first try at stakes competition. He came out of the first gate slot and immediately took the lead, and stayed there. The $300,000 winner's share earned this horse a guaranteed spot in the Kentucky Derby, as he was added to the list of late nominees last week. Here, I overlooked Recapturetheglory. I liked:

1. Denis of Cork

2. Atoned

3. Z Humor

They finished:

1. Recapturetheglory

2. Golden Spikes

3. Z Humor

4. Atoned

5. Denis of Cork

Denis of Cork and Atoned may be question marks for the Run for the Roses after today, depending on graded earnings, and continued health and soundness. I'll be interested to see what connections have to say about Denis of Cork's race today.

A New Champion Emerges From the Wood M.

(left: Tale of Ekati, War Pass, Court Vision are first, second and third in Wood M, Right: Tale of Ekati)

War Pass was the heavy favorite for the Wood Memorial today. As if he knew that everything was on the line for him today, he was uncharicteristically nervous and jittery before the start, much like he was on Tampa Bay Derby Day. But a better gate break got him to the front and set the stage for him to run his race. The race was a chance for him to prove that his lackluster performance in the Tampa Bay Derby was in fact a fluke, and that he still is a top contender. He did that, or at least, showed that he still has many good races in him. War Pass set suicidally fast fractions on the lead throughout the race, and in his usual style, he had opened up a respectable lead at the top of the stretch. But the grueling pace, and perhaps the added distance took its toll on the Champ, and though he fought valiantly, Tale of Ekati got the best of him today--payback for the Breeder's Cup Juvenile perhaps. Take nothing away from War Pass, all things considered he ran a very good race.

Tale of Ekati, a horse that has deserved to be on the Triple Crown trail all along, finally gets some respect, and he should--he ran a fabulous race. He's the only horse that's ever chased War Pass down on the lead and defeated him--the only horse that's ever beaten War Pass on a good day. Tale of Ekati fought determinedly with War Pass throughout the stretch drive and was able to get up to win the photo. Court Vision was third, a dissappointment for him that could mean the trip to Churchill is cancelled (unless his connections have a valid excuse).

For this race, I liked:

1. War Pass

2. Court Vision

3. Texas Wildcatter

4. Tale of Ekati

5. Anak Nakal

They finished:

1. Tale of Ekati

2. War Pass

3. Court Vision

4. Giant Moon

5. Anak Nakal

Throw Texas Wildcatter (8th) in there in place of Giant Moon and I was pretty close.

Rivalry is Put to Rest in Santa Anita

Colonel John came flying up the outside late in the final furlong to just score in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby over Bob Black Jack and Coast Guard. El Gato Malo was the favorite with Colonel John the second choice, but the gelding didn't show up to play today. In an earlier post, I stated my top five for this race:


1. El Gato Malo
2. Colonel John
3. Yankee Bravo
4. On the Virg
5. Bob Black Jack

They finished:

1. Colonel John
2. Bob Black Jack
3. Coast Guard
4. Yankee Bravo
5. El Gato Malo
6. On the Virg

So my top five were in the top six, which isn't so bad, but El Gato Malo dissappointed me today. Colonel John will be moving up on my list in a few minutes.

Two More Horses Step Off the Derby Trail

(Majestic Warrior)

Majestic Warrior, after dissapointments in the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby, will not run in the Kentucky Derby. The son of AP Indy has not tasted victory since the Hopeful Stakes last September in his second lifetime start.

Etched steps off the trail after finishing fourth in his first career defeat in the UAE 2000 Guineas at Nad Al Sheba in Dubai. He was scheduled to rebound in the Al Bastakiya, but missed it (I'm not sure of the reason). He was an impressive winner over Anak Nakal and others in the Nashua Stakes as a two year old and has excellent bloodlines, and should go on to do good things even if the Triple Crown races are not in his future.

(Etched)

Denis of Cork the One to Beat in Illinois

(left: Denis of Cork, right: Z Humor)

The Illinois Derby became considered a major Kentucky Derby prep race in 2002, when War Emblem came from the Grade II even to win gate to wire in the Derby and Preakness, before faltering to eight in the Belmont. This year's Illinois Derby draws a fairly decent field, which is topped by undefeated Southwest winner, Denis of Cork. I personally think that this race was an easy way out for Denis of Cork, who comes to Hawthorne to avoid facing War Pass in the Wood M. Denis of Cork will be tough to beat here, but there are some other interesting horses to look at here. The race has also drawn Recapturetheglory, Instill, Z Humor, Atoned, Golden Spikes, and Real Appeal. I think the best shot at upsetting Denis of Cork today will come from Atoned, who was a determined runner up to Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby last month. Z Humor has been a bit dissapointing this season, but I think he has a good shot in this field. While Denis of Cork may be very tough to beat, Atoned is a tough horse, who is looking to break a long streak of seconditis. The colt has been second in his last four. His lifetime record is very respectable, with 8 starts, and only 2 wins, but five times second. A good race here could set him up nicely for Kentucky. This isn't a very deep field, but here, I like:

1. Denis of Cork (He'll be tough to run down)

2. Atoned (can run him down if all goes well)

3. Z Humor (rounds out my top three here)

(Atoned at the Tampa Bay Derby)