Zenyatta for Horse of the Year...Who's With Me?

My first reaction to Zenyatta was one of disinterest, because I was still high on the Ginger Punch & Histericalady train. After all, they were 2/3 of my proudest handicapping acheivement--the 2007 Breeder's Cup Distaff trifecta (especially amazing since it was a three way photo). So at first I figured Zenyatta was good, but didn't think she'd been tested. Boy was I wrong. Only when she beat Ginger Punch did I begin to see just what she was capable of, and not too long after that did I believe that she is one of the best fillies ever to set foot on the track. Undefeated 8 for 8, she went on to win the 2008 Breeder's Cup Ladies' Classic, and when Curlin finished 4th in the classic the next day, He opened the door quite a bit for the Horse of the Year title.

I love Curlin, I really do. I was a believer in his abilities before most (meaning before the Arkansas Derby, when he was still untested). And I may have been wrong in picking him on Derby Day that year, but my persistence paid off when he won the Preakness, and ultimately, the Breeder's Cup Classic (picking against him that day was the biggest handicapping mistake I ever made) and Horse of the Year in 2007. Curlin became the first horse in history to break the $10 million dollar mark in earnings.

That said, when Curlin lost the Classic this year, I wondered what would happen with Horse of the Year, and ultimately, I think it belongs to Zenyatta. If you really think about it, even though she hasn't raced the boys, she's been the most impressive. She's won two grade 2 and four grade 1 stakes races this year alone, and she's won them in ver convincing fashion. A commercial that played the day after her Breeder's Cup win called her Unbeaten and Unbeatable. She is an amazing horse. Of course Big Brown will be considered for the title because of everything he accomplished this year (even though he will always be remembered for the race he lost), and Raven's Pass for his Breeder's Cup Classic win. I think Big Brown would have had a better chance at it if he hadn't had to scratch from the Breeder's Cup. Raven's Pass is obviously a good horse, but the title belongs to more than just the Breeder's Cup Classic winner. It's supposed to be the star horse all year. So really, I think it comes down to Big Brown, Zenyatta, and Curlin. Curlin's loss in the BCC hurts his chances, but his win in the Dubai World Cup will keep him in the running.

All things considered, I think Zenyatta is the most deserving, and I'd love to see her win it. Anyone agree?

Breeder's Cup

(Raven's Pass wins the Breeder's Cup Classic)

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It's been quite some time since I've posted, but I have to update on the Breeder's Cup. Thankfully, it was two packed days of great racing that for once, were not tainted with injury. The winners were:

Friday, 10/24

Filly and Mare Sprint: Ventura

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Maram

Juvenile Fillies: Stardom Bound

Filly and Mare Turf: Forever Together

Ladies' Classic: Zenyatta

Saturday, 10/25

Marathon: Muhannak

Turf Sprint: Desert Code

Dirt Mile: Albertus Maximus

Mile: Goldikova

Juvenile: Midshipman

Juvenile Turf: Donativum

Sprint: Midnight Lute

Turf: Conduit

Classic: Raven's Pass

Match Race?

A Curlin/Big Brown match race--a good idea? In my opinion, absolutely not. True, the fans would eat it up, and it would do wonders for the sport IF both horses make it through unharmed. But I think the whole idea is silly for a couple reasons. First of all, I strongly believe that Curlin is the better horse by far, and even if the younger horse (Big Brown) is better, typically 4 year olds are stronger than three year olds. But most importantly, the outcome of the Ruffian/Foolish Pleasure match should be calling a screaming warning in an era of horse racing tragedies. I thought they were trying to increase safety, but instead we're taking two of the best horses in the country and pitting them against each other in an all out, whoever runs faster for longer wins duel. I don't think it was ever good for the horses, but especially not now, when the breed is more fragile than ever. That amount of stress could be catastrophic for both horses.

Answers to Some of Those Questions...

Big Brown did win his Haskel Stakes, but he didn't look at all like the Big Brown we are used to seeing. However, confidence has been re-established in the Dutrow camp, and Big Brown's plans are back on track.

Also, I mentioned War Pass and English Channel--the BCT winner of 2007 has been retired, and as for War Pass, it looks as though his career may be done as well, and certainly, his chance at the Breeder's Cup is a long shot.

As for Curlin? I guess the jury is still out, but it's looking more and more like a switch back to dirt is in the making.

Big Questions This Week...

Number one on everyone's mind of course, is Big Brown's return to the races in the Haskell on August 3. He has a big recovery to make after his Belmont Stakes dissapointment. Since I've updated, the discovery of a loose shoe has added to the mix of rumors and unanswerable theories that have been circulating in the aftermath of the "Test of a Champion."

Also of interest, Curlin's defeat on the turf brings up some questions. He may get another shot before they abandon plans of taking him to the Prix de L'arc de Triomphe in France, but he will have to step up his game big time to have a shot at that race. If he doesn't run well on grass, I'm assuming they'll switch him back and aim him for a repeat of the Breeder's Cup Classic. If he ends up being good on grass, will he run in one of the grass races instead? Perhaps the Breeder's Cup Turf? I say it's more likely he runs in the Classic again.

And what about Evening Attire? A ten year old, running in the Breeder's Cup? Looks like it could definately happen. Evening Attire has been to the BC before, but it has been a while. However, he did just win a challenge race very easily. Along the same lines, Perfect Drift is still running, but he'd have to make a big step to get to the BC.

Well Armed is a nice feel-good story for this year, after recovering from a hip fracture to finish third behind Curlin in the Dubai World Cup, he was a challenge for the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile, and it's likely they will try to get him into the Classic if possible. Boy is he a beautiful animal.

How about Histericalady? Is she ready to turn the tables on Ginger Punch at this year's BCD? She's the leader of the division right now, and for good reason. Maybe this year Histericalady will win the photo instead. It's a real shame there can be no Eight Belles in that race, because I would have loved to see that. May she rest in peace.

And of course Notional, who was expected to be a top contender for the 2007 Kentucky Derby, but had to drop due to injury--he's earned a spot in the BCDM, and may try to get to the Classic.

My own curiosity makes me wonder about the plans of English Channel, if he's still racing, and particularly, Da'Tara. I wonder if they'll aim the bittersweet Belmont winner for the Classic to possibly rematch against Big Brown. Of couse the possibility of Big Brown vs. Curlin is still of more interest.

Also, War Pass. Where will he go? He would be a top candidate for the Dirt Mile because of his style, and I've thought that since last year when he won the BCJ. I hope he gets the chance to run in it, because I think he has what it takes to win that one. I suppose it all depends on the progress he makes in recovery, though I assume he's doing well because I have not heard otherwise.

I will be reporting on the results of Big Brown's attempt to regain his dignity. If only he knew what kind of stakes he blew it under, maybe he'd know just how much pressure is on him now.

Change of Focus

It's time to start looking into Breeder's Cup possibilities.

Our current top contenders are:

1. Curlin (Record: 3-2-1-0, BC points: 10), of course. Although he did just experience defeat, he is still in contention for something, whether it be turf or dirt. We shall see.
2. Precious Passion (Record: 6-2-1-1, BC points: Challenge Win)
3. Histericalady (5-3-0-1, 14)
4. Kip Deville (2-2-0-0, 10)
5. Benny the Bull (4-4-0-0, 6)
6. War Pass (3-1-1-0, 6)
7. Indian Blessing (5-3-2-0, 30)
8. Notional (5-1-0-1, Challenge win)
9. Nownownow (1-1-0-0, 0)
10. Mistical Plan (4-1-0-1, 4)

The Stars Are Back

(Curlin and Rags to Riches in the 2007 Belmont Stakes)

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Curlin scored an impressive victory in the Stephen Foster Handicap Saturday, Pyro returned to his finest three year old form, winning the Northern Dancer, Histericalady scored a win, and Ginger Punch easily won the Ogden Phipps.

Big Brown Update

It's a mystery. Big Brown came out of the race fine, and they never found anything wrong with him. It's a shame that was the opprotunity he took to have a bad day. Why Belmont Day? All in all it just makes Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaho (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), and Affirmed (1978) all that much more amazing. After all, there is a reason that only eleven horses have pulled this trick out of the hat. That was very apparent when BB simply had no gas in the tank on saturday after the strain of making his third start in five weeks.

Big Brown's Big Mistake

(Da'Tara wins the 2008 Belmont Stakes)

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Shock. Absolute, dissapointing, disbelieving shock. This is more surprising than Smarty Jones's loss in 2004. Big Brown pulled a War Pass-in-the-Tampa Bay Derby today. It was like watching an instant replay of that race. Da'Tara, on the other hand ran very impressively. But it almost seems as though no one cares about that. All eyes and ears are on Big Brown, wondering if there's something serious wrong. If there is, horse racing may never fully recover from this season. My best guess though, is that there was just no gas in BB's tank today, and sometimes it can be as simple as that. I can assure you that all the members of PETA are sitting around just waiting for news on Big Brown, wondering if they'll come away with more ammunition for their fight against the sport. I will update on his condition as soon as anyone knows anything.

Until then, here's to Da'Tara and the bright future he may have in the wake of this race. He looked every bit champion out there.

PS, Casino Drive did scratch, but he's doing just fine.

Casino Drive's and Big Brown's Hoof Problems

(Big Brown winning Kentucky Derby)

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On Thursday of Belmont week, Casino Drive was pulled up by jockey Edgar Prado in a workout because he didn't seem comfortable. He was switching leads frequently down the homestretch. Unwilling to blame this on some kind of injury, his connections first turned to the sloppy track, which very well may have been his biggest problem. But Friday morning, the colt missed his jog because he seemed a bit off on his left hind foot. That's when his "likely stone bruise" was discovered. So connections are waiting to see how he's doing Saturday morning before making any decision to scratch the horse. If he's not well, they say they won't run him. Of course the scrath of Casino Drive certainly would not be bad news for Big Brown's chances at sweeping the Triple Crown. But for now, both horses remain entered in the Belmont Stakes. Of course Big Brown himself has been dealing with the quarter crack, which is all straightened out now. He got his patch Friday, and the hoof specialist said he wouldn't need to take another look at it, probably for months. He gave as close to a guarantee that the patch would stay on as possible when he said "If the patch comes off during the race, I may as well quit what I'm doing."

Eight Belles: A Tragedy Not Overlooked.

(Eight Belles at the Kentucky Derby)

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When Eight Belles was first introduced to the Kentucky Oaks scene, I wrote her off. I was already strongly backing Proud Spell at that point, a decision that helped me pick the Oaks-Derby Double this year. It wasn’t until the first mention of running her in the Derby that I took a closer look. When I did, I was extremely impressed. Aside from a seventh place disappointment at two, her record looked good, and each of the races she’d won had a character of its own. She won from last. From first. And after one of the most interesting gate breaks I’ve ever seen. She was a big filly, standing 17 hands tall, which is 5’8” at the top of her shoulder. She went into the Derby as the most experienced horse in the field, and came out second best. If Big Brown wins the Belmont Stakes, that move will be that much more impressive. Of course we all know the unfortunate circumstances that took Eight Belles’s life after her valiant Derby effort. And though no one can agree on a cause (everything from steroids to the whip have been blamed), we can all agree that something should be done.
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Horse racing has been appearing more dangerous in recent years, starting really with Barbaro, whose injuries in the 2006 Preakness Stakes took eight months to cost him his life. He was followed by Pine Island, who fell on the backstretch of the 2006 Breeder’s Cup Distaff and was immediately euthanized, and Fleet Indian, also in the 2006 BCD suffered a non life threatening, but career ending injury. Last year’s Triple Crown went without major incident, but the fall campaign brought more disaster. A single day at Keenland racecourse carried three major injuries with it. A horse named Dream of Angels flipped backwards in the paddock before the race and had to be put down after suffering severe head trauma, bleeding, and cranial and spinal cord problems. A two year old named Gold Train broke down in the Lane’s End Breeder’s Futurity and also had to be euthanized. And Kentucky Derby 17th place finisher Teuflesberg was injured in the Phoenix Handicap, and was taken off the track in an ambulance. He was operated on and able to enter stud in 2008. The Breeder’s Cup ran in very sloppy conditions in 2007, and the last race of the day was the last race for George Washington, a European horse bred by Roy and Gretchen Jackson (Barbaro’s owners). George Washington had been retired, but after being found sterile, was taken back to the track. He was euthanized after breaking an ankle in the BCC, the race that ensured champion Curlin Horse of the Year honors. This brings us to 2008 Kentucky Oaks day, when Michael Matz trained Chelokee dislocated his ankle in the Alysheba Stakes. He broke no bones but underwent surgery to repair the dislocation and damaged ligaments. Chelokee is currently doing very well. And finally, we come to Eight Belles, who broke both front ankles while pulling up after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. These are just the breakdowns in televised events between the 2006 Preakness Stakes and the 2008 Preakness Stakes.
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I watched Eight Belles’s accident over and over, trying to figure out exactly what happened. But I don’t think there will ever be a clear explanation. No, Larry Jones is not responsible because he gave her an anti-inflamitory less than two days before the race. It would have been out of her system. No, it is not because she ran in the Derby instead of the Oaks. It could have just as easily happened to her in the Oaks, or to any of the boys in the Derby. No, it is not her jockey’s fault—he rode her perfectly, and used his whip sparingly. There’s one thing that sticks out to me when I watch that video, and it’s something that no one has even mentioned. The filly switched leads only one stride before she collapsed. To me that could be coincidence, but most likely means one of two things happened. Either she broke the left first, then switched to the right lead to take the pressure off the left front. Then, the added pressure to the right front caused it to give out. Or, she switched on her own because that’s what she’s trained to do when she enters the back and home stretches, and she didn’t follow through, which caused her to stumble. Jones said that she had a habit of not picking her feet up very well when she was pulling up. Of course those are just my humble theories as I am untrained, but I do know quite a bit about horseracing, and a lot about horses in general.
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The outpouring of grief (or in some cases anger) over the death of Eight Belles is unprecedented. PETA is calling for immediate action. And while some of the things they suggest may be a bit over the top, I think there are some changes that can be made, but first we need to pinpoint the biggest problem and start there. Ruffian’s death called for the end of match racing—which was a huge problem because there is no strategy, meaning that the horses have to run full out the whole race. The only way to win a match race is to run faster than the other horse and be able to maintain that speed longer than the other horse. But if you go back before Ruffian, breakdowns were not as prominent. What was different back then? A lot of things. If I had to take a guess at what the three biggest problems are, I’d have to say that the use of drugs (not all but most) is the first. The way that thoroughbreds are bred these days is also an issue. It’s all about speed. No one breeds a durable horse anymore. After all, what good is a horse that could run all day, but can’t win? Back in the day horses used be able to run some 80 races and never get hurt. But today, that horse would not be fast enough to beat our speed driven breed. We need to go back to a more durable horse. Also in that category is the issue of breeding farms. Back then, people bred their own horses for the purpose of racing them. Now, all they need to do is make good money selling them, which they can do by taking a horse with problems and making them cosmetically perfect. No one will ever know what the past of their foal is like. The horses also don’t get turn out time as foals as much now, and that pasture time produces wear and tear that helps make the horse stronger. The other thing we need to do is really research this polytrack stuff, and if we find that it is indeed safer, have it installed more places. We also need to find a better way to enforce the rules we make.
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Autopsy revealed that Eight Belles didn’t have any serious health issues or bone abnormalities, nor was she on steroids. The filly is going to be memorialized at Churchill Downs, where she ran her last race. No one expected the Kentucky Derby to be the end of the road for her, especially when she ran so well. But Eight Belles ran the race of her life—she laid everything she had on that track, and she never made it back to the barn.

Belmont Stakes

Big Brown is all set to try for the Triple Crown. He's got three big obstacles in his way:
the quarter crack on his left front hoof, Casino Drive, and the post position number 1.

Big Brown's quarter crack appeared three friday's (two weeks) before the race. Quarter cracks are very common, and they can be a problem, but it may not bother him at all. He worked well when he finally got to breeze this week, and his excersize rider said that he felt like the same horse he was before the crack. It's going to be patched on friday with a substance that is stronger than the hoof itself.

Casino Drive was specially bred and trained specifically for the Belmont Stakes. His bloodlines say he should win this easily. Oh, and if his past races, though they are few, are any indication, he'll be tough to beat. I dismiss the discussion of his Peter Pan stakes being faster than Big Brown's Preakness for two reasons: 1, Big Brown was eased across the wire to save something for Belmont, and wasn't running his fastest. 2, Casino Drive ran a different day at a different track. Both horses ran against competition that was suspect at best. Big Brown's was perhaps just a touch tougher.

Big Brown drew post no. 1. This shouldn't be a problem for him because he can run the lead, so if he breaks fast, he'll be free and clear. His Preakness showed that he can also win after he's had some dirt kicked in his face. As long as he gets a good ride, it shouldn't be a problem for him.

The field in post position order is:

1. Big Brown

2. Guadalcanal

3. Macho Again

4. Denis of Cork

5. Casino Drive

6. Da'Tara

7. Tale of Ekati

8. Anak Nakal

9. Ready's Echo

10. Icabad Crane

Is Big Brown Being Set Up For Failure?

(Casino Drive)

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We all know Big Brown is a good horse. Even if those he's beaten are as bad as people say, he has to be good to do what he's done. But There are two things that stand in his way on Belmont day: The first in the impressive Casino Drive, who has Belmont victory written all over his bloodlines, and the second is those promlematic feet.

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Casino Drive has been so impressive in his only two starts that I have to wonder if he can take down Big Brown. He is a son of Mineshaft by AP Indy, who was a Belmont winner himself, and was the son of Seattle Slew by a Secretariat mare. That's three Belmont winners without any research further. He is also a half brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil and a 3/4 brother to 2007 Belmont winner Rags to Riches.

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Big Brown's feet have been a problem for much of his so far brief career, and now as he awaits the Belmont Stakes, he is recovering from a quarter crack. It's healed rather quickly, and it should not bother him at all on race day, but I can't help but wonder if this is some kind of sign screaming out to not run him in the Belmont, for fear of serious injury. Maybe I'm just hung up on the Eight Belles tragedy, but I think I speak for everyone when I say that I'd rather see Brown have to forfeit the Triple Crown by not running than to do so by ending up like her.

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But maybe this is all premonition. After all, I had some of these same feelings before the Preakness. Maybe Big Brown will win it easily and become the Triple Crown winner this sport so badly needs. I think that Casino Drive is the only major obstacle in the way of him doing so.

Big Brown Wins Preakness Stakes

(Big Brown)
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Big Brown was so overpowering in the Preakness Stakes that Kent Desormaux eased him across the wire as his rivals scrambled for second and third place honors. Improving his status to five wins in five starts, Big Brown now has what looks to be a very good shot at becoming horse racing's first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

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In other news, horseracing was able to breathe somewhat of a sigh of relief as no horses were injured at Pimlico on Saturday. In the wake of Eight Belles's death, protestors stood at the front gates of Pimlico with signs that read things like "horse racing is animal cruelty," a statement that I will never believe to be true. Horses like Eight Belles and Big Brown get treated like royalty. I can't deny that I often wonder if horse racing is too dangerous, but I don't think these horses are treated badly. When I see Big Brown bound home on the lead with his ears pricked straight forward, I see a happy horse. When Eight Belles came home second in the Derby, she was a happy horse.

Preakness Stakes

(Curlin, 2007 Preakness Stakes Winner)

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Like so many others, I can't help but feel a little uneasy about today's Preakness Stakes. We have Eight Belles to thank for that. The valiant filly did not deserve to go the way she did, but she was handled humanely. There was nothing they could do for her. I am right there with all those hoping to see Big Brown win this afternoon, and ultimately hoping to see him sweep the Triple Crown. But I have this gut feeling--call it worry, call it a premonition, call it paranoya, call it whatever you like--that something is going to go wrong here. Not that Big Brown, or anyone, is going to get hurt. Just that maybe, just maybe he can't win this one. It does seem silly to expect this to be the rough one after the 20 post blowout he did two weeks ago. Big Brown looks good. He's healthy, he's happy. Now he just needs to not be unlucky. The Preakness Field is:

1. Macho Again
2. Tres Borrachos
3. Icabad Crane
4. Yankee Bravo
5. Behindatthebar (SCR)
6. Racecar Rhapsody
7. Big Brown
8. Kentucky Bear
10. Stevil
11. Riley Tucker
12. Gaint Moon
13. Gayego
14. Hey Byrn

Brown Wins it Big!

(Big Brown winning Florida Derby)

There is no denying--Big Brown was awesome today. So to all of those Big Brown haters--sorry, but ya'll are going to have to eat your words for a while. I hated that his trainer was so "confident" (which I like to use to replace arrogant). But I decided at post time not to take it out on the horse, and after going back and forth between him and Colonel John, and even Eight Belles once, I settled on this top five:
1. Big Brown (won of course)
2. Colonel John (was sixth)
3. Eight Belles (was second, more on that later)
4. Pyro (was eighth)
5. Visionaire (was twelfth)

not a bad day's work, and when combined with the other two winners I chose today, it gets even better. Also, I got the Oaks Derby Double because I chose Proud Spell yesterday.

Big Brown could go all the way guys--his hardest race is over. We'll see if he stays sound long enough to win the other two (because that will probably be his biggest problem).

Now about Eight Belles--I honestly thought, when I saw a gray laying on the track, that it was either Monba or Z Fortune, because Eight Belles had just finished second and looked perfectly fine. But of course we all know it was her. She broke both front ankles, which is very odd, while she was galloping out. Actually she was done galloping out--she looked totally fine, then all the sudden she just collapsed. I'll write more on her when I have a better sense of how I feel about that.

This post is to Big Brown and his awesome race today!

The Field is Set!

1. Cool Coal Man
2. Tale of Ekati
3. Anak Nakal
4. Court Vision
5. Eight Belles
6. Z Fortune
7. Big Truck
8. Visionaire
9. Pyro
10. Colonel John
11. Z Humor
12. Smooth Air
13. Bob Black Jack
14. Monba
15. Adriano
16. Denis of Cork
17. Cowboy Cal
18. Recapturetheglory
19. Gayego
20. Big Brown

Let's start with Big Brown--I hate him in the 20 spot. He's a good horse, but this is not a positive post for him. Not that it can't be done--after all, they said the Florida Derby couldn't be won from 12. But this will be difficult, especially if he doesn't break well. In fact, he'll need to break VERY well to not lose any ground here. I also hate the extreme confidence (or just plain arrogance) that is coming from his connections. But unlike many others, I'm not going to take that out on the horse. He's a good horse and I still think he's got a shot.

Pyro and Colonel John--both have drawn good post positions and should both run their race on Saturday.

Visionaire--I absolutely love him in the eight slot. Matz won from that slot with Barbaro, so putting this guy there makes sense.

Eight Belles--I'm so happy the filly is running! She might get bumped around a little in the 5 slot, but she seems like a tuff filly. She should be a factor here.

Court Vision--should be fine from four because he's a closer, and has been working very well in his new blinkers.

Adriano--gets hype after Prado chose him over the others, but in my mind, he's not a dirt horse. He could run well here, but I don't know that I see him winning

Monba and Cowboy Cal--Monba looks good, but it's hard to tell how he'll handle Churchill because his best performances have come on synthetic. But his Fountain of Youth loss was not without good reason (being stepped on and coming out with a big cut, not to mention the breathing problem he had surgery for while he was out of training because of the injury). Cowboy Cal is a turf horse all the way. He was seventh in his only start on the dirt, but it was quite some time ago, so there is chance he could turn the tables here.

1. Cool Coal Man

Record: 8-4-1-0

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Perhaps the Fountain of Youth wasn't as good as it looked, but if it was, he'll be a player. Most people thought Elysium Fields was the better horse that day, but he flopped in his second chance in the Flordia Derby. Of course that, combined with Cool Coal Man's dismal Bluegrass effort doesn't give me much reason to think this horse will win the Derby. But I've been wrong before, and I could be wrong about this one too.

2. Tale of Ekati

Record: 6-3-1-0

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Was fairly impressive when he ran down a tiring War Pass in the Wood Memorial, but he'll need to take another step in the right direction to win this one. He is a beautiful animal, and was a solid two year old. The Wood is his only really solid three year old effort, and the time was quite slow, even after the fast fractions set by War Pass. He did also beat Court Vision in that race, but I don't really know what to think of this one. That day, I was very impressed with him. I guess I'll find out on Saturday.

3. Anak Nakal

Record: 6-2-1-0

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I am simply wondering what happened to his two year old form. Zito says he thinks the Wood was a good race, but Anak Nakal has a lot of work to do if he wants to win this race. He likes Churchill and won a race there at two, but he's been pretty lackluster this year. I'm not sure I would have run him if he were my horse, but obviously, he's not. Anyway, I love that he's by Victory Gallop, who of course was 2, 2, and 1 by a nose in the 1998 Triple Crown against Real Quiet.

4. Court Vision

Record: 6-3-1-2

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Has been working very well in the blinkers, and never runs a bad race. He hasn't been able to win this year, but he never runs a bad one, and he has never been worse than third. He still has a good shot at this race. I don't know what to think about him because I think he's a good horse, but he's disappointed me twice this year. One more strike and he's out.

5. Eight Belles

Record: 9-5-2-1

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The lovely lady is really running. I am so excited. I would love to see her win this thing, and it isn't out of the question. She's got talent. She might get roughed up a little coming from five, but she is a big girl, and she should be tough. What really impresses me about her is her versatility. She also has plenty of experience. I've seen her win from the front and the back, and if she turns it on Saturday, she could be either leading the boys or chasing them down the homestretch. If she runs her race, I think she'll be a top five factor. Interestingly, she actually has the most experience of all the horses running in the Derby.

6. Z Fortune

Record: 6-3-2-0

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Gets an advantage over Gayego (who beat him in the Arkansas Derby) with his post position here. Z had a rough post at Oaklawn, and ran very well but couldn't quite catch Gayego. He has a much better post here, and he is a solid contender. This horse was undefeated before he raced Pyro in the Risen Star, and though he was dismal in the next, he rebounded well int he Arkansas. Look for him to be fighting hard to win this down the stretch.

7. Big Truck

Record: 8-3-1-1

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I'm sad to say that I don't really expect anything much from this colt. I saw him win the Tampa Bay Derby, and I would love to be able to say that I saw a Kentucky Derby winner in person (well, I actually did--I saw Monarchos at Claiborne Farms). I think it would be so amazing to be able to say, Hey, I was there when that Derby winner won...or whatever. I was just glad at this point that he was running because my luck ran out with War Pass and Atoned dropping out. Big Truck is a nice looking colt. But he doesn't stack up with the best of this field. Let's leave it at that.

8. Visionaire

Record: 6-3-1-1

The Michael Matz colt. I like Michael Matz alot because I followed his career when he was a show jumper, and of course when he trained Barbaro, well, that pretty much did it. I fell in love with Barbaro and backed him for the Derby before alot of others did. Visionaire will be coming form the same gate slot, and the 8 is actually a very good spot. This should be a fine race for him. He's a very nice, consistent horse.

9. Pyro

Record: 7-3-2-1

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Of course, we come to Pyro--the major Derby favorite before his Bluegrass Stakes that wasn't. If he's been working well at Churchill, and we know he likes the track, he should be in the picture on Saturday. I've lowered him out of the number one spot, but he's still up there in my top three. I can't forget what he did in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. He's a very good horse, and he should like the distance. I dont' really care for the looks of this horse (or at least not the way he runs), but he is very effective, and looks don't mean a thing in a race like this.

10. Colonel John

Record: 6-4-2-0

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When you lay everything out, past performances, pedigree, and post position, this guy probably has the best shot at this race. His Santa Anita was incredible--his closing kick was most impressive. He hasn't run on dirt, but his pedigree actually says he should be better on dirt than he is on synthetic, which is a very frightening thought. I'm not going to lie, I still resent him a little for knocking El Gato Malo off the trail, but I'm starting to like him more. He's an awesome horse, and he has a very, very good shot here. His pattern looks like this: 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1... It looks like it's time for a second. PS, I'm not that big on the patterns, I'm just throwing them out there.

11. Z Humor

Record: 8-2-0-3

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Not sure how I feel about his one. He ran solidly at two, but he hasn't done much to inspire me this year. However, he does seem to be improving with each race (this season) and while I don't expect anything great from him, and don't necessarily think he belongs in this race, I can't completely discount him, because as soon as I do, he'll win. Pattern people, here's a good one. Z Humor has won the first of each set of four races. The Kentucky Derby is one in his third set of four, so if he goes by his pattern, he should win.

12. Smooth Air

Record: 7-3-2-2

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Was much the second best in the Florida Derby--a statement with two meanings. First, Big Brown was much the best that day. Smooth Air was beaten six lengths. But Smooth Air was seven lengths better than the rest of the field, so it was a very good effort for him. His absolute biggest issue for saturday is this fever he's had. He's missed training due to this, and though he's fine now and all set to run, the timing couldn't be worse. Missing training before the Kentucky Derby can be detrimental.

13. Bob Black Jack

Record: 7-3-2-1

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Santa Anita Derby runner up has distance questions, but certainly no lack of class or talent. He currently holds the world record for six furlongs, which he scored when he won the Sunshine Millions Dash at Santa Anita. So his best performances have also been on the Poly. He'll figure into the early speed of this race, although his connections want to back him off the pace a little to try to make up for the distance. Figure him to be a factor if he handles the dirt and runs like he did in the Santa Anita Derby. The only horse that beat him that day was Colonel John.

14. Monba

Record: 5-3-0-0

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His best efforts have come on the synthetic surface, but he had good excuse in his Fountain of Youth so it is very difficult to tell how he'll run at Churchill. Monba is a good horse, and he should be a contender if he can transfer his form to the dirt. While he had the down time for from the injury (very minor, just a bad cut) that he recieved when he was stepped on in the Fountain of Youth, he got throat surgery, and that could have been what turned him around. Not to say that he wasn't good before, because he was. But maybe he's even better now.

15. Adriano

Record: 7-3-1-0

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Another good turf horse coming in with a good performance on the synthetic. Adriano was the center of a good deal of hype when Edgar Prado, who rode Barbaro in 2006, chose him over all his other possible Derby mounts, which included Tale of Ekati and Monba. This horse looked most impressive in the Lane's End, but again, not so solid on the dirt so far. He didn't run well in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and unlike Monba, was not surrounded by good excuse. However, like every other horse in this field, he earned his way here, and there is no reason he shouldn't get a shot. And he could do really well, or he could put up a dismal effort on the Churchill dirt.

16. Denis of Cork

Record: 4-3-0-0

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Looked like a top player until the Illinois Derby. He got lucky with his graded earnings and just barely got in, but he deserves to be in this race. His Illinois wasn't his best, and his Southwest was most impressive. This horse will need to step up a little to win this race, but he has a shot. If he can return to his form when he was undefeated, he'll be tough to beat. But his Illinois Derby effort shakes the confidence a little, and sixteen isn't the world's best post, especially not when the four horses outside of him are all front runners. We'll see what happens.

17. Cowboy Cal

Record: 6-3-2-0

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He's a turf horse, but a very good one at that. He's only been worse than second once, but here's the scary thing--it was his only dirt start. He's a very good horse, and I keep telling myself that Barbaro started on turf. But Barbaro also won on dirt twice before the Derby. Cowboy Cal ran second to Monba on the synthetic in the Bluegrass, and it was a very good effort. If he can transfer to dirt on this second try, he could be a factor. I absolutely won't overlook this guy.

18. Recapturetheglory

Record: 6-2-1-2

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Reminiscent of War Emblem, this guy comes in off a wire to wire Illinois Derby win. He'll be a long shot, no doubt, but I will never completely overlook any horse--I've learned the hard way. War Emblem was a long shot on Derby Day, and he went on to do some pretty impressive things. As for Recapturetheglory, he definitely will not get the comfortable pace he got at Hawthorne on Derby Day, and if he's one dimensional, he could run poorly if he doesn't get the lead. I'm actually quite interested to see how he does on Saturday. Again for fans of patterns--if he runs all three triple crown races according to his, he'll run well in the Derby and Preakness and win the Belmont. He's won every third race. But, they can't all run on patterns. I don't expect too much from this one.

19. Gayego

Record: 5-3-2-0
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Gayego brings excellent credentials with his Arkansas Derby win, and what I mean, really, is that the Arkansas Derby is one of the strongest prep races. Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin--they all came from that one. Gayego was the last to pick a post, so he got what was left, which after Big Brown's connections surprisingly picked 20, was 19. Gayego has excellent speed figures (in comparison) and definitely has a shot if he gets a good trip. For any fans of patterns, he's been 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st in that order, so if he keeps that going he'll be second here.

20. Big Brown

Record: 3-3-0-0

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Undefeated Big Brown comes in as the morning line favorite, even after drawing the extreme outside post. The post position will not be a big issue for him IF he gets out clean and fast and is able to get a good position before the first turn, but that is a big if. Big Brown's connections seem to think it is impossible for him to lose this race, and I have to say--they have good reasons to be so confident but absoluetly NOTHING is impossible in horse racing. Man o' War lost a race. Secretariat lost races. Native Dancer lost the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, this also means it is not impossible for Big Brown to win big, like Barbaro did. But that's a stretch. Saturday will have all the answers.

A Single Fatal Step (tribute to Go For Wand)

“…She’s been mentioned in the form as being compared with Personal Ensign and Ruffian, and that’s really quite an honor—even to be categorized with that class of fillies” (Badgett).

Her name was Go For Wand, and she was something extremely special—the kind of horse that only comes around once in a lifetime. Born in 1987 to Obeah by way of Deputy Minister, Go For Wand was a terror on the track, winning ten of thirteen lifetime starts, and finishing second in two others. At two, she was second in the Frizette, and then went on to win the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was the Eclipse Award Champion Two Year Old Filly of 1989. At three, she won the Beaumont Stakes at Belmont Park by eight and a half lengths, then won the Ashland Stakes by five before heading to the Kentucky Oaks. She was upset in that race, beaten easily by Seaside Attraction. But the resilient Go For Wand came back to win the Mother Goose, the Test, the Alabama (over previously undefeated Charon), the Maskette, and the Beldame, in which she set a new stakes record. For these wins, she was also later named Three Year Old Champion Filly by the Eclipse Awards in 1990.

Go For Wand’s next goal was the 1990 Breeder’s Cup Distaff, a much anticipated mach up between the top two fillies in the country—defending BCD winner Bayakoa, who was distinguished out west, and Go For Wand, the “terror of the sophomore distaff set” (Cantey). But the race did not go as planned for Go For Wand, to say the least. The 1989 BCJF and BCD winners promised a good show—and they both did their very best to deliver. But what appeared to be one of the best races in the history of the sport quickly turned into one of racing’s most tragic days.

The 1990 Breeder’s Cup Distaff may have been one of the most highly anticipated horse races of all time. Bayakoa, the returning champion, had been running well the entire year in the west, and Go For Wand was considered to be one of the best fillies of her generation. She was expected to win that afternoon. “I just can’t see that the number two horse, Go For Wand, can be beaten…” (Johnson). But these words rang eerily foreshadowing before the race began. “The question with her today is, this is her third start in 24 days. No matter how easily she’s winning, she has to put something into those races if she’s got an Achilles Heel, that could be the only one today” (Cantey).

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Randy Romero, who had ridden “Wanda” to all of her victories, was up again for this race. “I was riding Go For Wand in the Breeder’s Cup Distaff. It’s just like the Olympics. It’s the Ultimate” (Romero). The Champions paired up at the start of the race, and ran together throughout. They called it a “clash of champions” as the two, side by side, entered the homestretch of one of the greatest battles the sport has seen. “I could hear him [Bayakoa’s jockey] urging his mare to come to me, and he couldn’t come to me” (Romero). Go For Wand wouldn’t give in, and it appeared that Bayakoa didn’t have quite enough speed to run the younger filly down. Go For Wand was on her way to glory, she was beating all her rivals—horses her age, and older mares.

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“And my horse, I was the strength; I was the power at the time, when it happened, because I was in front” (Romero). Go For Wand was unwavering, and Bayakoa was battling back steadily. It was a two horse race at that point. “Go for Wand on the inside, Bayakoa battling back, a dramatic distaff…Go For Wand, Grimly holding on, Bayakoa right there” (1990 BCD Announcer Call). One of them had to falter. Bayakoa and Go For Wand had been dueling the entire race, and for both of them to cross the wire together—it would have brought back memories of Affirmed and Alydar in the Belmont Stakes. But no one expected or was prepared for the outcome of this race. “I was the man; I was the winner at the time that it happened, so far” (Romero).

Go For Wand’s Breeder’s Cup came to the most sudden and devastating of endings at the sixteenth pole. Her life and career were now in jeopardy as Bayakoa went forward to win her second consecutive Breeder’s Cup Distaff. “OH! And a TRAGEDY as Go For Wand has fallen at the sixteenth pole! And 55,000 here, in shock as Go For Wand has broken down at the sixteenth pole” (1990 BCD Announcer Call). Her right front ankle had given out, giving Bayakoa the freedom to run home to an easy win, and changing Go For Wand’s immediate goal to mere survival. But Wanda refused to give up. She stood back up. “I could see her out of the corner of my eye after I fell and hit the ground; I could see her leg was just flopping. She was just trying to run—to get to the wire, still trying to win” (Romero). Go For Wand was galloping along, just trying to do what she was born to do—win. As she ran, it was clear that her ankle joint wasn’t right—it was severely broken. It is likely that she actually broke her ankle earlier in the race, and her determination—her desire to continue running—is what caused it to finally give out. When Go For Wand fell, her situation immediately became life or death. “And it happened so damn fast. I mean, we’re talking about splits of a second” (Romero). Officials caught up with Go For Wand, and were able to get her back down. She was half standing on her hind legs, and her body was turned so that her neck and front legs were laying sideways on the track. “…and it is rapidly turning into the most tragic day in American horse racing history. A hollow victory [for Bayakoa] indeed…” (1990 BCD Announcer Call). The lower portion of her right front leg was pulverized; her injury was hopelessly severe. Go For Wand was euthanized right there on the track. “Right now, I can just picture it” (Romero). The fabulous filly’s jockey was put on a stretcher with multiple fractures in and around his shoulder, and taken to the hospital. “I didn’t think I was hurt that bad, but I was” (Romero).

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Bayakoa’s trainer, Ron McAnally, didn’t bring much peace to the situation with this quote:

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“As fans of this game, we must recognize and respect that sometimes these beautiful animals give their lives for our enjoyment” (McAnally).

But perhaps this was one of the most well put quotes about horseracing tragedy ever spoken. Go For Wand gave her life, for OUR enjoyment. But no one can deny that Wanda loved to run—it was all she knew. And she was great at it—probably one of the best fillies that ever set foot on the track. She’d been compared with Personal Ensign, a filly that never lost and defeated Kentucky Derby winning filly Winning Colors in the 1988 Breeder’s Cup Distaff. Randy Romero had ridden Personal Ensign to that victory, and his answer when asked if there was any comparison between the champ and Go For Wand was, “Awfully close, awfully close” (Romero).

Go For Wand was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1997. The Maskette Handicap, which she won as a three year old, was renamed the Go For Wand Handicap in her honor in 1992, and is run annually under that name. She was buried in the infield at Saratoga. She will never be forgotten.

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The Citations are:

Billy Badgett, Go For Wand’s trainer.
Charlsie Cantey, TV reporter on BCD Day.
Randy Romero, Go For Wand and Personal Ensign’s jockey.
Ron McAnally, Bayakoa’s trainer.
Go For Wand’s owner was Jane DuPont Lunger of Christiana Stables.

A War Pass Free Top Ten

1. Big Brown--if he keeps running like he has been....

2. Pyro--still not giving him up

3. Colonel John--Santa Anita impressive, hasn't run on dirt but has the right bloodlines with sire Tiznow as a two time Breeder's Cup Classic winner.

4. Proud Spell--the best of a filly crop that looks stonger than most of the colts do

5. Visionaire--always tries

6. Court Vision--worked very well at Churchill

7. Monba--best efforts have come on Poly, FOY was a throwout

8. Eight Belles-- filly has been most impressive this year.

9. Gayego--needs to reproduce Arkansas Derby

10. Z Fortune--may have been the best in Arkansas.

War Pass Will Pass On the Derby

War Pass was not working well this week, and as a precaution, some x-rays were taken. They discovered a fracture in his left front ankle, so he is out of training until it heals up. It's not very severe and he is walking soundly, so it shouldn't be a career ending problem. He will be back, it's just unfortunate timing. This will change the chemistry of the Derby quite a bit, as Big Brown will probably be the leader now. This is basically the biggest piece of news on the day today.

Atoned and Tomcito Out

Atoned (left) and Tomcito (below) both made last ditch efforts to gain some graded earnings, and neither ran anywhere near well enough in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes this afternoon. Both will skip the Derby now. Behindatthebar was the winner of the Lexington Stakes, and if he goes to the Derby, he'll be running on back to back two week layoffs. His last race was two weeks ago, and the Derby is in two weeks. It will make things difficult for him.

Blackberry Road, Yankee Bravo, El Gato Malo are Out

(Blackberry Road)

Blackberry Road--Finally drops out after disappointing in the Arkansas Derby. The colt seems to always have something to show in a race, but has only won once in more than enough lifetime starts. He looked more promising at the beginning of the year than he does now.

Yankee Bravo--Needed to win or place in either the Louisiana Derby or the Santa Anita Derby to make the budget. It's unfortunate--he deserves to run in that race al much as any of the others. He has talent and we may see him in some big ones later in the year

El Gato Malo--Probably wouldn't have made the graded earnings anyway, but this was a disappointment. He really deserved to run and had a shot at winning, but his Santa Anita Derby dealt him out of the cards. He'll hang around SA and run some races there.

(El Gato Malo)

1915, 1980, 1988, and Now 2008?

It was Regret in 1915. She was the very first Kentucky Derby winner of the female variety.

Genuine Risk won the Derby and was second in the Preakness and Belmont in 1980, making her our closest call to a filly winner of the Triple Crown. Winning Colors won the Derby in 1988. And of course our most recent filly star, Rags to Riches won the Belmont in 2007. This could be the first year in quite some time that a filly runs in the Kentucky Derby, and not just one--two, a situation that hasn't occurred since 1999, when Excellent Meeting and Three Ring finished 5th and 19th respectively. This year, they are Eight Belles, and Proud Spell, both trained by Larry Jones who trained Hard Spun to a Derby second and Preakness third last year. These fillies are both good--in fact, they are the two favorites for the Kentucky Oaks. But do they have the class to beat the boys?

Eight Belles jumped on to the Derby scene about a week ago, and she has every right to be there. She's shown a lot of class in her four starts this year. She's won from the front, from the last, and after one of the most interesting gate breaks I've seen in a while. She's a very large filly, and with the right luck at Churchill Downs, she could be better than the boys on Derby Day. She isn't a definite yet--she's entered in the Derby and the Oaks, and the decision will come down to Derby post position.

Proud Spell was overshadowed by Indian Blessing for quite some time. Indian Blessing is the only horse that's ever beaten her. But Proud Spell defeated the undefeated Indian Blessing in the Santa Anita Oaks, and that race bumped The Juvenile Filly Champ off the Oaks list. Proud Spell is the second highest money earner on the Derby list behind Pyro. I think that Proud Spell would have an excellent shot at either the Oaks or the Derby, wherever she runs. That too, will come down to post position. I suppose this means that if neither filly runs in the Derby, we'll only have an 18 horse field this year.

Top Ten Update

(left: Big Brown)

It's taken me nearly 21 hours to decide how I feel about Pyro's Bluegrass that wasn't yesterday. I'd love to believe that the synthetic made all the difference, and in some ways that makes sense. Regardless, it's not a good way to end preparations for the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown must only prove that his Florida Derby was as good as it looks. And Colonel John, only that he can transfer his Polytrack form to the Dirt. Top Ten is (parentheses show previous number):

1. Big Brown (2)--inexperience is biggest issue

2. Pyro (1)--didn't like Keenland, does like Churchill.

3. Colonel John (4)--Gayego's victory in Arkansas D. further validated his cause

4. War Pass (5)--Distance is an issue.

5. Visionaire (6)--is consistent and may benefit from distance.

6. Tale of Ekati (3)--Wood may not have been as good as it looked, but showed determination

7. Monba (N/A)--Bluegrass winner looks good, surface questions must be answered.

8. El Gato Malo (7)--Santa Anita wasn't his best, may not have enough earnings to get in.

9. Gayego (N/A)--Arkansas Derby looked very good, validated the top horses from the west.

10. Z Forutne (N/A)--Good rebound in Arkansas, needs a little more punch on Derby Day.

Arkansas Derby Validates Westerners

(left: Gayego is the Arkansas Derby winner)

Colonel John is looking better, and he didn't even run today. Gayego ran a fine race to win by one over Z Fortune in the Arkansas Derby, and in his last outing, was second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe. Of course, GB was up there with Colonel John and El Gato Malo as the top three of the west. Z Fortune has a wider trip, and may have been the better horse today, so he is on the right track for the Kentucky Derby as well. Final order of finish was (parentheses indicate my predictions):

1. Gayego (1)

2. Z Fortune (2)

3. Tres Borrachos

4. Indian Sun

5. My Pal Charlie (5)

6. Isabull

7. Golden Yank

8. Blackberry Road (3)

9. King's Silver Son

10. Jazz in the Park

11. Ablaze with Spirit

12. Liberty Bull (4)

13. Shekinah

Hey Byrn Gets Holy Bull

Hey Byrn (left) wins the Holy Bull today, but will have to wait around for some Derby dropouts if he's going to get to run. He's on the bubble with graded earnings.

Bluegrass Picture Doesn't Include Pyro

(Left: Monba winning Bluegrass)

Pyro was well back at the top of the home stretch in the 84th Bluegrass Stakes this afternoon, and he stayed there, finishing tenth. Meanwhile, Todd Pletcher, who's been struggling to get a solid Derby horse, took the top two spots with Monba and Cowboy Cal. The question for Pyro is this: is this performance a track issue? Or is there something underlying that we should look at? It helps his case a great deal that Z Fortune ran so well in the Arkansas Derby just an hour later. Pyro handed the Z his first career defeat in the Risen Star a while back. Pyro never even gave a solid effort today, which is indicative of a dislike of track surface. The race was his first try on synthetic surface. He's already proven that he likes the going at Churchill Downs, as he won his maiden race there as a two year old last year. He'll need to train well to make the rebound, but I'm guessing this is a throw-out race for him. The final complete order of finish was (parentheses show my predictions):

1. Monba (4)

2. Cowboy Cal (3)

3. Kentucky Bear

4. Stevil

5. Visionaire (2)

6. Miner's Claim (6)

7. Halo Najib (8)

8. Medjool

9. Cool Coal Man (5)

10. Pyro (1)

11. Big Truck (7)

12. Stone Bird

For the Record Before They Run....

I like Hey Byrn (left) for the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, and for the Arkansas Derby:

1. Blackberry Road

2. Z Fortune

3. Liberty Bull

4. My Pal Charlie

EDITS: Watching race now, hasn't run yet, liking Gayego alot.

Changes in choices:

1. Gayego

2. Z Fortune

3. Blackberry Road

4. Liberty Bull

5. Golden Yank

6. Isabull

7. Indian Sun

Pyro Faces Tough Bluegrass Field

(From left to right: Monba, Visionaire, Cowboy Cal)

Pyro brings excellent credentials with him to the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes at Keenland this Saturday. But he'll be taking a step up in competition. The Field in post order is as follows:

Cool Coal Man, Kentucky Bear, Cowboy Cal, Stevil, Monba, Big Truck, Pyro, Stone Bird, Medjool, Miner's Claim, Halo Najib, and Visionaire.

Visionaire comes into the Bluegrass off an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes, and a third place finish in the Risen Star behind Pyro. He'll have to step up to win here. Halo Najib comes from the Lane's End Stakes, where he was second to an impressive Adriano. Miner's Claim was a very strong second to Big Glen last time out in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway on the undercard of the Lane's End. Medjool runs back from a third in the Lane's End. Pyro of course will be the one to beat in his final Kentucky Derby prep race. Big Truck brings an impressive second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and an upset win in the Tampa Bay Derby, both at Tampa Bay Downs. He'll be taking a big step up in class here. Monba tries to rebound from a no chance run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes--he was checked hard early and came out of the race with a gash. He looks for another chance to Louisville here. Cowboy Cal has been exceptional on turf this year, and Polytrack could be the right move for him. He was dissappointing in his only dirt start to date. Cool Coal Man is proably the next best shot at a win behind Pyro. Here's who I like for this one:

1. Pyro (will fight to stay number one on all the Derby lists)

2. Visionaire (Has to overcome post 12, but has the ability)

3. Cowboy Cal (Poly shouldn't be a problem for him)

4. Monba (Fountain wasn't his best)

5. Cool Coal Man (Looks good, win here would bump him up)

6. Miner's Claim (bested by Big Glen last time, otherwise has done nothing wrong)

7. Big Truck (Is good, but may be outclassed here)

8. Halo Najib (needs a step in the right direction)

I'm pinning all my hopes on Visionaire for this one. I'd really like to see him take this step up and move forward to the Derby.