Preakness Stakes Overview.

Honestly I am feeling a little bit stumped in regard to what will happen at Pimlico Race Course tomorrow afternoon. Of course based on emotion alone I would have to go with American Pharoah, since America could really use that 12th triple crown winner to end this drought. That said, I'm not sure I have a triple crown feeling about the horse. I wasn't blown away by his win two weeks ago either, not to say that means he won't win tomorrow. In fact, I find it far more likely that he wins tomorrow than I do that he wins the Belmont Stakes.

If the tables get turned on Pharoah this weekend, I expect he will lose at the hands of Firing Line. I don't really expect Dortmund to improve his derby performance much either.

The real questions are: how much did the derby win take out of Pharoah? How well can he bounce back from that? These cannot be answered until race time. I expect he will run well, and I'd love to see him win here. It certainly adds a special air to Belmont day when a triple crown is on the line. It would be great to get to cross "witness a triple crown win" off my bucket list. But as the years go by, I find I am losing faith that it will happen. And of course it probably will someday, but I am losing patience with being dissapointed. And this year, much like last year, I am just not feeling that triple crown winner vibe. I haven't really felt that vibe since 2008 with Big Brown, and even more so in 2004 with Smary Jones.

I have more faith in American Pharoah than I did in California Chrome last year. One, I think Pharoah is a better horse, and two, Chrome had too many variables, ie his bad gatebreak habits. So we will see.

What I do know is that I expect the same top three tomorrow. It is just the order that has me thinking. I expect Dortmund to be third. And as for American Pharoah, I expect either a narrow loss or a big win.

And for the record, I also think it's great that all three horses are returning for the second jewel. I think it makes for and exciting triple crown campaign and a more fair Belmont Stakes.