There's Nothing Majestic About the Warrior

Big Brown (left) and Majestic Warrior (right) (photos from horsephotos.com)

So with the 2008 Florida Derby now in the past, could the hype on Majestic Warrior finally be over? I haven’t been a fan of this colt from the beginning, though I must admit I liked him for the 2007 Champagne Stakes. But his victory in the Grade I Hopeful Stakes does not and cannot make him a top derby contender by itself, and the cold hard fact is that Majestic Warrior has nothing to back that win up. He was a disappointing sixth in the Champagne as the favorite over eventual top derby contenders War Pass and Pyro. And okay, I’ll give it to him—the foot problem is an acceptable excuse. But to come back and be last in the Louisiana Derby? I don’t care about the long layoff. Look at Atoned. He ran a very good race against Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby. War Pass crushed foes in his three year old debut, and his layoff was almost as long. The son of AP Indy may be beautiful, but beauty alone doesn’t get a horse anywhere, at least not a racehorse. Majestic Warrior got pretty decent support in the Florida Derby this afternoon, but was never even in the picture. Now Big Brown’s absolute annihilation of the very tough field is a whole other topic on which I have no comment except “wow.” Big Brown has just sealed himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby, and while he doesn’t have the experience one would like to see, he certainly doesn’t lack the talent. I am not going to say that Majestic Warrior lacks talent either. He still is a good horse. Most horses don’t get the pleasure of winning a grade I race at any point in their lives. I just don’t think that he is Kentucky Derby material. After today, he may or may not run, but I don’t think he’ll be a factor. I am not ready to discount War Pass just yet. If he can handle the distance and gets a good trip, he’ll be tough to beat. But here’s where Big Brown will get the edge over War Pass: War Pass absolutely HAS to run the front. He just has to, and he made that very clear in the Tampa Bay Derby, when he finished dead last in his first career defeat after a slow break and a trip around the track behind other horses for the first time. Big Brown won from the font today, but he has also won from a stalking position, which is a very good quality for a Derby horse to have—the ability to lay close, and also the versatility to adapt to different circumstances and win from different positions. Of course Pyro is still a big player, and he’s been very impressive at three. In fact, War Pass is the only horse that can beat him it seems, and I think that will change with the longer distance they’ll have on Derby Day.