1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY. This spot is painful to give away, as it rightfully belongs to Eskendereya. However, Looking at Lucky has been near the top of my list since late 2009, so a shame, but still a deserving favorite when all is said and done. The only big concern for this guy is his troubled Santa Anita Derby: certainly the loss was not a product of lack of talent, but will it be a solid enough prep? He's also run primarily on the polytrack, however his connections seem to think he's better on dirt.Word on the backside is that this horse looks incredible on Churchill's dirt. Also, we shouldn't overlook his bloodlines. His sire Smart Strike has produced several fantastic horses, including Curlin.
2. CONVEYANCE. I think this horse is a bit overlooked because of the obscurity of the races that he's run in--the Southwest and the Sunland Derby are not typically considered some of the bigger derby preps. But what I like about this horse is consistency and experience, especially on dirt. He's won four of five and was second in his last start, but he's great on dirt, and he's never run a bad one, and he's been working well at Churchill. In my opinion, he's got the best track record of the group. Distance could be an issue, but surface will not. The derby will be a step up, but I have no reason to believe this horse can't answer the challenge.
3. SIDNEY'S CANDY. This horse hasn't run on dirt yet so I think I'm taking a bit of a chance putting him here, but he's coming off a very impressive performance in the Santa Anita Derby. He's been cleaning up over at Santa Anita all year long, and he's worked great at Churchill Downs, so no reason to doubt his ability to put up a good fight on Derby Day. Biggest disadvantage in his corner will be his front running style in a race that's full of speed.
4. ENDORSEMENT. Again, hasn't run any of the bigger preps, but there's something to be said for prepping on the dirt. And of course, Mine That Bird came from the Sunland Park Derby to win last year. This horse beat Conveyance there that day, and he looks pretty comfortable at Churchill. Probably will be a long shot, but I wouldn't rule him out yet.
5. AWESOME ACT. Didn't have the world's greatest trip in a fairly impressive third in the Wood Memorial. Will go off at a price, but should have a good shot if he runs the way he can. His late running style will benefit from the heavy population of pace setters in this race.
6. MISSION IMPAZIBLE. Louisiana Derby is one of the few preps left on traditional dirt, and this horse ran well that day. He should be happy on Churchill's track, and he's got a good record--never worse than third.
7. SUPER SAVER. Rough trip in the Arkansas Derby, finished second behind Line of David. The Arkansas Derby is probably the truest of all the prep races for Kentucky, so he's not one to overlook here. No final decision has been made about his running as he is still "recovering" from that bad trip. If he runs, he's got a shot.
8. STATELY VICTOR. Doesn't have the record or pedigree of some of the other contestants here, but he's coming off a very impressive Blue Grass Stakes. He's never run on dirt, but With Ghostzapper on his pedigree, he shouldn't have any trouble with Churchill's surface or with the Derby's distance. This is probably an ambitious pick, but I just have a gut feeling that this horse is better than people think he is.
9. ICE BOX. Can't ever rule out the winner of the Florida Derby. This horse isn't the most impressive, but he'll benefit from a fast pace and he has the class to compete with the field. Chances to win? Probably not great. Top ten? Pretty darn good.
10. LINE OF DAVID. I'd actually like to put this horse higher on the list, but we just simply don't know enough about him yet. However, he ran great when he won the Arkansas Derby, and his sire (Lion Heart) ran second in the Kentucky Derby himself, so if he's as good as his last race looked, he's got a great shot. But for now, he'll hang out down here in tenth.
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