Lookin At Lucky

I don't typically give the best two year olds much shot in the Derby because too much changes during the first few months of the year--the races change surface for many, they get longer, and those that were the best two year olds typically pass their peak and take the back seat to the later blooming, stronger three year olds. That said, I have to say it. Lookin At Lucky looks very, very good. We're talking about a two year old who already has three, THREE grade I wins. In addition, he has a maiden victory and a grade II victory. His only short coming was a narrow defeat in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile after a wide, rough trip. Of course his west coast racing poses the ever pressing question--what happens when he runs on dirt? Unfortunately, and I'm basing this on the schedule that Bob Baffert used for Pioneer of the Nile (he is also the trainer of this horse) last year, we probably won't see this colt on the dirt until Derby Day. My guess is he'll go in a Santa Anita Derby prep and the Santa Anita Derby before heading to Churchill. Just a guess.

Lookin at Lucky is by Smart Strike, who of course brought us Curlin, Fabulous Strike, English Channel, along with others. He is currently five for six, which is a better record than most horses have by the time they enter the Derby starting gate. And so, even though I strongly believe that there is a reason Street Sense is the only BCJ winner to duplicate that in the Derby, that great two year olds don't usually make great three year olds, I can't help but be intrigued and impressed by this colt. However, Baffert has said he's getting a long break, and will only run two preps, so look for him to show up later in the prep season.