My top ten really hasn't changed, except for the fact that my top five are so close now that I really can't even distinguish one from the other anymore. Any one of those horses could win, and they all have a good shot.
I still really like I Want Revenge. But a part of me wants Fresian Fire to win just so Larry Jones (who trained the last two runners up) can finally get his derby winner before he retires at the end of this year. I also think that Quality Road might just be the best horse out there, but I can't tell you how many times the FL Derby winner has let me down. However, the quarter crack looks good. Dunkirk has inexperience against him, but so did Big Brown and Curlin along with many others. Pioneer of the Nile refuses to back down, but the derby is a much taller order than his other races so far this year. Also, I may be the only one saying this, but don't count out Musket Man. I ran a statistical model (which is fairly accurate if you count out the variables (bad days, track condition, etc.) and it clearly said that Musket Man would be the winner. This model correctly picked Smarty Jones, Barbaro, and Big Brown. Of course, it comes down to alot more than statistics, but it was interesting enough to point out. Musket Man won't be my winning choice, but hey, he's 5 for 6. Would you overlook him?
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